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在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-trader
功能描述
Build and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation.
使用说明 (SKILL.md)
Polymarket Trader
Maintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.
Workflow (use this order)
- Confirm the market type
- This skill is optimized for
bitcoin-up-or-down-*1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).
- Compute the anchor signal (Binance)
- Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.
- Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.
- Convert to fair probability for Up/Down.
- Trade only when there is measurable edge
- Enter only if
edge = fair_prob - market_priceexceeds a threshold. - Add a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.
- Exit using the right logic for the entry mode
- Model entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.
- Mean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.
- Validate with logs
- Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:
reason/entry_mode- Binance-derived fair probability + z
- whether the correct exit block fired
Bundled scripts
All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.
1) Fetch Binance klines
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py- Pulls klines and prints JSON.
2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py- Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.
3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context
{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py- Reads paperbot
events.jsonland prints a concise table for the last N fills:- side/outcome/px/reason
- estimated fair_up + z
- “against trend?” flag
- Reads paperbot
References
{baseDir}/references/strategy.md— the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.
安全使用建议
Before installing or using it, understand that it is a trading-analysis helper, not a guarantee of profit. It will contact Binance public APIs, and explain_fills.py will read and print local PaperBot fill logs. Use the correct log path, keep any real Polymarket trades under explicit manual approval, and install Python dependencies only from trusted sources.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-trader
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle is designed to analyze and tune a Polymarket trading strategy using Binance data. All scripts (`binance_klines.py`, `binance_regime.py`, `explain_fills.py`) interact with the public Binance API to fetch market data and `explain_fills.py` reads a specific local log file (`events.jsonl`) from the agent's workspace. While `explain_fills.py` contains a hardcoded absolute default path for `events.jsonl`, this path points to a non-sensitive file within the expected operational scope of the skill, and it's a default argument that can be overridden. There is no evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, persistence, prompt injection against the agent, or obfuscation. The behavior is clearly aligned with the stated purpose.
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The purpose is coherent with the artifacts: SKILL.md describes a BTC 1h Up/Down strategy, and the bundled files compute Binance-based signals and explain PaperBot fills. Because it concerns financial trading decisions, users should treat outputs as analysis rather than guaranteed profit.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md includes entry/exit/hold rules for trades, but the provided code does not include Polymarket credentials, account access, or order-execution logic. Real-money execution should remain explicitly user-approved.
Install Mechanism
There is no install spec or automatic install flow. The helpers are simple Python scripts, but scripts/explain_fills.py imports dateutil, so dependency setup is under-declared rather than hidden.
Credentials
The scripts contact Binance public APIs and read a local PaperBot events log; both are disclosed and aligned with the strategy-analysis purpose, but they should be run only against the intended log path.
Persistence & Privilege
The artifacts show no background service, persistence mechanism, privilege escalation, credential storage, file writes, deletions, or account mutation.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-trader - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-trader触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v1.0.0
polymarket-trader v1.0.0
- Initial release: toolkit for building and analyzing BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategies anchored to Binance BTCUSDT.
- Guides users through confirming market type, computing anchor signal, and applying edge-based entry criteria.
- Includes workflow for model and mean-reversion entries with detailed logging for trade validation.
- Provides utility scripts for fetching Binance klines, regime analysis, and fill explanation.
- Reference materials supplied for model math and parameter tuning.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket Trader 是什么？
Build and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation. 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 4374 次。
如何安装 Polymarket Trader？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-trader」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket Trader 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket Trader 完全免费（开源免费），可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket Trader 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket Trader 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket Trader？
由 drakec48（@drakec48）开发并维护，当前版本 v1.0.0。
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