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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-trader
Description
Build and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation.
README (SKILL.md)
Polymarket Trader
Maintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.
Workflow (use this order)
- Confirm the market type
- This skill is optimized for
bitcoin-up-or-down-*1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).
- Compute the anchor signal (Binance)
- Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.
- Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.
- Convert to fair probability for Up/Down.
- Trade only when there is measurable edge
- Enter only if
edge = fair_prob - market_priceexceeds a threshold. - Add a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.
- Exit using the right logic for the entry mode
- Model entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.
- Mean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.
- Validate with logs
- Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:
reason/entry_mode- Binance-derived fair probability + z
- whether the correct exit block fired
Bundled scripts
All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.
1) Fetch Binance klines
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py- Pulls klines and prints JSON.
2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py- Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.
3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context
{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py- Reads paperbot
events.jsonland prints a concise table for the last N fills:- side/outcome/px/reason
- estimated fair_up + z
- “against trend?” flag
- Reads paperbot
References
{baseDir}/references/strategy.md— the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.
Usage Guidance
Before installing or using it, understand that it is a trading-analysis helper, not a guarantee of profit. It will contact Binance public APIs, and explain_fills.py will read and print local PaperBot fill logs. Use the correct log path, keep any real Polymarket trades under explicit manual approval, and install Python dependencies only from trusted sources.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-trader
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle is designed to analyze and tune a Polymarket trading strategy using Binance data. All scripts (`binance_klines.py`, `binance_regime.py`, `explain_fills.py`) interact with the public Binance API to fetch market data and `explain_fills.py` reads a specific local log file (`events.jsonl`) from the agent's workspace. While `explain_fills.py` contains a hardcoded absolute default path for `events.jsonl`, this path points to a non-sensitive file within the expected operational scope of the skill, and it's a default argument that can be overridden. There is no evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, persistence, prompt injection against the agent, or obfuscation. The behavior is clearly aligned with the stated purpose.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The purpose is coherent with the artifacts: SKILL.md describes a BTC 1h Up/Down strategy, and the bundled files compute Binance-based signals and explain PaperBot fills. Because it concerns financial trading decisions, users should treat outputs as analysis rather than guaranteed profit.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md includes entry/exit/hold rules for trades, but the provided code does not include Polymarket credentials, account access, or order-execution logic. Real-money execution should remain explicitly user-approved.
Install Mechanism
There is no install spec or automatic install flow. The helpers are simple Python scripts, but scripts/explain_fills.py imports dateutil, so dependency setup is under-declared rather than hidden.
Credentials
The scripts contact Binance public APIs and read a local PaperBot events log; both are disclosed and aligned with the strategy-analysis purpose, but they should be run only against the intended log path.
Persistence & Privilege
The artifacts show no background service, persistence mechanism, privilege escalation, credential storage, file writes, deletions, or account mutation.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.0.0
polymarket-trader v1.0.0
- Initial release: toolkit for building and analyzing BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategies anchored to Binance BTCUSDT.
- Guides users through confirming market type, computing anchor signal, and applying edge-based entry criteria.
- Includes workflow for model and mean-reversion entries with detailed logging for trade validation.
- Provides utility scripts for fetching Binance klines, regime analysis, and fill explanation.
- Reference materials supplied for model math and parameter tuning.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Trader?
Build and analyze a BTC 1h Up/Down trading strategy anchored to Binance BTCUSDT, applying edge thresholds, regime filters, and detailed trade validation. It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 4374 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Trader is completely free (open-source). You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Trader support?
Polymarket Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Trader?
It is built and maintained by drakec48 (@drakec48); the current version is v1.0.0.
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