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Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs

Name: Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs
Author: alyna123t

作者 alyna123t · GitHub ↗ · v0.1.0 · MIT-0

cross-platform ⚠ suspicious

总下载

当前安装

版本数

在 OpenClaw 中安装

/install polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs

功能描述

Pair NO-advance with YES-winner legs for the same 2026 World Cup team to trade cross-market mispricing.

使用说明 (SKILL.md)

Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs

Strategy source: https://x.com/zETHerka/status/2061162222156460540

Thesis

This skill links two related market types for the same team:

group-stage advancement
outright World Cup winner

It enters a pair:

buy NO on "team to advance"
buy YES on "team to win World Cup"

The goal is to monetize structural mispricing and event-driven repricing between connected markets.

What it does

scans active 2026 World Cup advance + winner markets
pairs markets by normalized team name
computes pair economics:
- pair_cost = (1 - advance_yes) + winner_yes
- settle edge if team fails to advance: 1 - pair_cost
- reprice edge if team advances: (winner_yes + boost) - pair_cost
enters only when both edge thresholds pass
applies spread/slippage safeguards + cooldown + daily budget
supports --venue (sim, polymarket, kalshi)

Defaults

dry-run by default
per leg: $4 (pair spend = $8)
daily budget: $30
max pairs/run: 2
winner repricing boost: +0.10
team universe seeded with 15 national teams (editable via team_universe)

Run

cd skills/polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --config
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --live
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --positions

Tune

python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set per_leg_usd=5
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set winner_reprice_boost=0.12
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_settle_edge=0.03
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_cross_gap=0.25
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_reprice_edge=-0.30

Deterministic spec (Skill Builder style)

Signal

Team appears in both advance + winner market sets
Pair has positive floor in fail-advance and advance+reprice scenarios

Entry logic

Buy NO on advance leg and YES on winner leg for same team
Require both settle_edge and reprice_edge thresholds

Exit logic

v0.1 focuses on disciplined pair entry
explicit exit rules can be added in future revision

Market selection

Active 2026 FIFA World Cup team-advance and outright-winner markets

Position sizing

fixed per_leg_usd on each leg

Risk controls

max_spread, max_slippage_pct
cooldown_hours
max_pairs_per_run
daily_budget_usd
optional safeguards (--no-safeguards disables)

安全使用建议

Install only if you are comfortable giving this skill a Simmer API key and allowing explicit live trading. Review scripts/status.py before use, because it can show account-wide balance and positions beyond the narrow World Cup pair strategy. Keep dry-run or sim mode first, avoid --live unless you intend real orders, and avoid --no-safeguards unless you understand the market-context checks it disables.

能力标签

cryptorequires-walletrequires-sensitive-credentials

能力评估

⚠ Purpose & Capability

The main World Cup pair-trading script matches the stated purpose and requires an explicit --live flag for orders, but scripts/status.py is a generic account-status utility that reads balance, exposure, and positions and is not described in SKILL.md.

⚠ Instruction Scope

Live trading is documented and dry-run is the default, but there is no additional runtime confirmation before real orders, and the account-status helper broadens the skill beyond the published trading workflow.

✓ Install Mechanism

clawhub.json declares SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk, has autostart false and cron null, and points the managed entrypoint at world_cup_delta_pairs.py.

⚠ Credentials

Network access and SIMMER_API_KEY are proportionate for a trading integration, but the included helper calls portfolio and positions endpoints for account-wide financial data, which is broader than the narrow pair-trading description.

ℹ Persistence & Privilege

There is no background persistence, but live runs can place real orders and write local daily_spend.json and cooldown_state.json state files for budget and cooldown tracking.

如何使用

确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
在对话框中输入安装命令：/install polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用 /polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs 触发
根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出

版本历史

v0.1.0

Initial release from zETHerka World Cup linked-market thesis

元数据

Slug polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs

版本 0.1.0

许可证 MIT-0

累计安装 0

当前安装数 0

历史版本数 1

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