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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
Description
Pair NO-advance with YES-winner legs for the same 2026 World Cup team to trade cross-market mispricing.
README (SKILL.md)
Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs
Strategy source: https://x.com/zETHerka/status/2061162222156460540
Thesis
This skill links two related market types for the same team:
- group-stage advancement
- outright World Cup winner
It enters a pair:
- buy NO on "team to advance"
- buy YES on "team to win World Cup"
The goal is to monetize structural mispricing and event-driven repricing between connected markets.
What it does
- scans active 2026 World Cup advance + winner markets
- pairs markets by normalized team name
- computes pair economics:
pair_cost = (1 - advance_yes) + winner_yes- settle edge if team fails to advance:
1 - pair_cost - reprice edge if team advances:
(winner_yes + boost) - pair_cost
- enters only when both edge thresholds pass
- applies spread/slippage safeguards + cooldown + daily budget
- supports
--venue(sim,polymarket,kalshi)
Defaults
- dry-run by default
- per leg:
$4(pair spend =$8) - daily budget:
$30 - max pairs/run:
2 - winner repricing boost:
+0.10 - team universe seeded with 15 national teams (editable via
team_universe)
Run
cd skills/polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --config
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --live
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --positions
Tune
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set per_leg_usd=5
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set winner_reprice_boost=0.12
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_settle_edge=0.03
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_cross_gap=0.25
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_reprice_edge=-0.30
Deterministic spec (Skill Builder style)
Signal
- Team appears in both advance + winner market sets
- Pair has positive floor in fail-advance and advance+reprice scenarios
Entry logic
- Buy NO on advance leg and YES on winner leg for same team
- Require both
settle_edgeandreprice_edgethresholds
Exit logic
- v0.1 focuses on disciplined pair entry
- explicit exit rules can be added in future revision
Market selection
- Active 2026 FIFA World Cup team-advance and outright-winner markets
Position sizing
- fixed
per_leg_usdon each leg
Risk controls
max_spread,max_slippage_pctcooldown_hoursmax_pairs_per_rundaily_budget_usd- optional safeguards (
--no-safeguardsdisables)
Usage Guidance
Install only if you are comfortable giving this skill a Simmer API key and allowing explicit live trading. Review scripts/status.py before use, because it can show account-wide balance and positions beyond the narrow World Cup pair strategy. Keep dry-run or sim mode first, avoid --live unless you intend real orders, and avoid --no-safeguards unless you understand the market-context checks it disables.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The main World Cup pair-trading script matches the stated purpose and requires an explicit --live flag for orders, but scripts/status.py is a generic account-status utility that reads balance, exposure, and positions and is not described in SKILL.md.
Instruction Scope
Live trading is documented and dry-run is the default, but there is no additional runtime confirmation before real orders, and the account-status helper broadens the skill beyond the published trading workflow.
Install Mechanism
clawhub.json declares SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk, has autostart false and cron null, and points the managed entrypoint at world_cup_delta_pairs.py.
Credentials
Network access and SIMMER_API_KEY are proportionate for a trading integration, but the included helper calls portfolio and positions endpoints for account-wide financial data, which is broader than the narrow pair-trading description.
Persistence & Privilege
There is no background persistence, but live runs can place real orders and write local daily_spend.json and cooldown_state.json state files for budget and cooldown tracking.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.1.0
Initial release from zETHerka World Cup linked-market thesis
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs?
Pair NO-advance with YES-winner legs for the same 2026 World Cup team to trade cross-market mispricing. It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 40 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs?
Run "/install polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs free?
Yes, Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs support?
Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs?
It is built and maintained by alyna123t (@alyna123t); the current version is v0.1.0.
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