← 返回 Skills 市场
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader
作者
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
185
总下载
0
收藏
0
当前安装
4
版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader
功能描述
Systematically finds markets with huge asymmetric payoff -- markets priced at 2-10% where cross-category macro analysis suggests the REAL probability is 15-3...
安全使用建议
Do not provide a live SIMMER_API_KEY or real funds until you resolve the metadata/install inconsistencies and verify the simmer-sdk package/source. Recommended steps before installing or running live: 1) Confirm with the author/owner why registry metadata lists no env vars while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY. 2) Inspect the simmer-sdk package on PyPI or its source repo to ensure it is legitimate and matches expected endpoints. 3) Run the skill only in paper mode (the default sim venue) and review logs and network traffic to confirm it contacts expected Simmer/Polymarket endpoints. 4) If you plan to enable live trading, rotate credentials after a successful audit and limit the API key permissions and funding. If you are uncomfortable with the unresolved packaging mismatches, treat the skill as untrusted and do not use it with real credentials or money.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate automated trading bot designed to identify and trade 'longshot' markets on Polymarket based on a macro-support heuristic. The code in `trader.py` implements the described strategy using the `simmer-sdk`, including logic for market classification and conviction-based sizing. It features a 'safe by default' mechanism that requires an explicit `--live` flag for real trades, defaulting otherwise to a simulated paper-trading environment. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection were found.
能力标签
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The name, SKILL.md, and trader.py all describe a Polymarket-longshot trading strategy and the code implements that logic using a SimmerClient. Requesting an API key for a trading wrapper (SIMMER_API_KEY) is appropriate for the stated purpose. However the registry summary at the top incorrectly lists 'Required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY — this metadata mismatch is incoherent and should be resolved.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py describe market discovery, filtering, scoring, sizing, and (optionally) trade execution. The instructions and code only reference market data, tunables, and the Simmer client. There are no instructions to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate arbitrary data. The SKILL.md invites remixing with external signals (news, other forecasting sites) but does not itself include vague 'gather whatever context you need' directives.
Install Mechanism
The package has no explicit install spec in the registry summary despite clawhub.json listing a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). That mismatch is concerning: there is code that imports simmer_sdk, but no declared install steps. If the runtime auto-installs dependencies, verify the source and authenticity of the 'simmer-sdk' package. Lack of an explicit, verifiable install mechanism increases supply-chain and execution ambiguity.
Credentials
The only sensitive credential required by the code is SIMMER_API_KEY, which is proportionate for a trading skill. The skill also reads many environment tunables (SIMMER_*), which are expected for risk controls and sizing. The earlier registry metadata incorrectly stated no required env vars, which conflicts with clawhub.json and trader.py — this inconsistency should be clarified before providing any API key.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always-enabled, autostart is false, and it defaults to paper trading unless explicitly invoked with a --live flag. Autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) but there is no 'always: true' or other elevated persistence. The skill will call out to the Simmer service when active — expected for trading.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader skill - initial release.
- Systematically scans prediction markets for longshots (2–10% probability) that may be underpriced based on cross-category macro signals.
- Uses ladder analysis and escalation signals from related markets (crypto, health, geopolitics, economic) to compute macro support for potential trades.
- Automatically filters, classifies, scores, and sizes trades, focusing on asymmetric payoff opportunities with safeguards and paper trading by default.
- Provides clear strategy, risk parameters, and signal logic for remixing or enhancement with news, expert, or social data.
- Fully documented with examples, trade sizing logic, and parameter tuning instructions.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader 是什么？
Systematically finds markets with huge asymmetric payoff -- markets priced at 2-10% where cross-category macro analysis suggests the REAL probability is 15-3... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 185 次。
如何安装 Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader？
由 diagnostikon（@diagnostikon）开发并维护，当前版本 v0.0.3。
推荐 Skills