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Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
185
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader
Description
Systematically finds markets with huge asymmetric payoff -- markets priced at 2-10% where cross-category macro analysis suggests the REAL probability is 15-3...
Usage Guidance
Do not provide a live SIMMER_API_KEY or real funds until you resolve the metadata/install inconsistencies and verify the simmer-sdk package/source. Recommended steps before installing or running live: 1) Confirm with the author/owner why registry metadata lists no env vars while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY. 2) Inspect the simmer-sdk package on PyPI or its source repo to ensure it is legitimate and matches expected endpoints. 3) Run the skill only in paper mode (the default sim venue) and review logs and network traffic to confirm it contacts expected Simmer/Polymarket endpoints. 4) If you plan to enable live trading, rotate credentials after a successful audit and limit the API key permissions and funding. If you are uncomfortable with the unresolved packaging mismatches, treat the skill as untrusted and do not use it with real credentials or money.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate automated trading bot designed to identify and trade 'longshot' markets on Polymarket based on a macro-support heuristic. The code in `trader.py` implements the described strategy using the `simmer-sdk`, including logic for market classification and conviction-based sizing. It features a 'safe by default' mechanism that requires an explicit `--live` flag for real trades, defaulting otherwise to a simulated paper-trading environment. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection were found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The name, SKILL.md, and trader.py all describe a Polymarket-longshot trading strategy and the code implements that logic using a SimmerClient. Requesting an API key for a trading wrapper (SIMMER_API_KEY) is appropriate for the stated purpose. However the registry summary at the top incorrectly lists 'Required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY — this metadata mismatch is incoherent and should be resolved.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py describe market discovery, filtering, scoring, sizing, and (optionally) trade execution. The instructions and code only reference market data, tunables, and the Simmer client. There are no instructions to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate arbitrary data. The SKILL.md invites remixing with external signals (news, other forecasting sites) but does not itself include vague 'gather whatever context you need' directives.
Install Mechanism
The package has no explicit install spec in the registry summary despite clawhub.json listing a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). That mismatch is concerning: there is code that imports simmer_sdk, but no declared install steps. If the runtime auto-installs dependencies, verify the source and authenticity of the 'simmer-sdk' package. Lack of an explicit, verifiable install mechanism increases supply-chain and execution ambiguity.
Credentials
The only sensitive credential required by the code is SIMMER_API_KEY, which is proportionate for a trading skill. The skill also reads many environment tunables (SIMMER_*), which are expected for risk controls and sizing. The earlier registry metadata incorrectly stated no required env vars, which conflicts with clawhub.json and trader.py — this inconsistency should be clarified before providing any API key.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always-enabled, autostart is false, and it defaults to paper trading unless explicitly invoked with a --live flag. Autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) but there is no 'always: true' or other elevated persistence. The skill will call out to the Simmer service when active — expected for trading.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader skill - initial release.
- Systematically scans prediction markets for longshots (2–10% probability) that may be underpriced based on cross-category macro signals.
- Uses ladder analysis and escalation signals from related markets (crypto, health, geopolitics, economic) to compute macro support for potential trades.
- Automatically filters, classifies, scores, and sizes trades, focusing on asymmetric payoff opportunities with safeguards and paper trading by default.
- Provides clear strategy, risk parameters, and signal logic for remixing or enhancement with news, expert, or social data.
- Fully documented with examples, trade sizing logic, and parameter tuning instructions.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader?
Systematically finds markets with huge asymmetric payoff -- markets priced at 2-10% where cross-category macro analysis suggests the REAL probability is 15-3... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 185 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-macro-asymmetric-longshot-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader support?
Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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