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Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader

作者 diagnostikon · GitHub ↗ · v0.0.3 · MIT-0
cross-platform ⚠ suspicious
189
总下载
0
收藏
0
当前安装
4
版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
功能描述
Systematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88...
安全使用建议
This skill appears to implement the advertised longshot-bias trading strategy, but take these precautions before installing: - Confirm the SIMMER_API_KEY: clawhub.json requires it; SKILL.md fails to mention it. Ask the publisher what permissions the key needs (paper-only vs. live trading) and whether it can be scoped to allow only paper trades. - Inspect the 'simmer-sdk' package: the skill depends on this pip package but no version or upstream source is provided. Verify it comes from a trustworthy registry (PyPI) and review its code or maintainers. - Verify live vs paper behavior: the code defaults to paper trading, but a --live option can make real trades. Ensure the platform prevents accidental use of live credentials or requires explicit confirmation. - Source provenance: there is no homepage or publisher info. If you plan to run against real money, ask for a canonical source repo, release notes, and an author identity you trust. - If possible, run the skill in a sandboxed environment with limited API credentials (read-only or paper-trade scope) and audit its network calls before granting broader access. These issues make the package internally inconsistent (documentation vs. declared requirements) — sensible to treat it as suspicious until the above clarifications are provided.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill Name: polymarket-longshot-bias-trader Version: 0.0.3 The skill implements a legitimate trading strategy for Polymarket based on the 'longshot bias' anomaly. The Python code (trader.py) uses the simmer-sdk to discover markets and execute trades, featuring a 'safe by default' paper-trading mode and configurable risk parameters. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found; the logic is transparent and aligns with the documentation in SKILL.md.
能力标签
cryptocan-make-purchasesrequires-sensitive-credentials
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name, description, and trader.py all align: it discovers markets and places trades to exploit longshot bias. However clawhub.json declares a required SIMMER_API_KEY and a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' while SKILL.md states 'no external API required' (which is misleading). Requiring a market/trading API is appropriate for this purpose, but the documentation omission is an inconsistency.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit behavior to market discovery, signal computation, and trade execution. The code enforces a paper-trading default (no --live) and contains market gating (spread, volume, days-to-resolve). It does not instruct reading unrelated files or exfiltrating data.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install script included, but clawhub.json lists a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). That is a normal distribution channel, but no package version is pinned and the skill source/homepage are missing. Confirm where 'simmer-sdk' will be installed from (PyPI or other) and review that package before allowing installation.
Credentials
The only required credential declared in clawhub.json is SIMMER_API_KEY, and trader.py reads a set of SIMMER_* tunables. These variables are proportional to a trading client that needs API access. The concern is SKILL.md did not document the API requirement, so a user could install without realizing an API key is needed (and what permissions that key grants).
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not marked always:true and autostart is false. disable-model-invocation is the platform default (agent may invoke autonomously), which is expected for a trading skill. Automaton entrypoint is trader.py, which is appropriate for a managed trading component.
如何使用
  1. 确保已安装 OpenClaw(本地或 Docker 部署)
  2. 在对话框中输入安装命令:/install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
  3. 安装完成后,直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用 /polymarket-longshot-bias-trader 触发
  4. 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入,即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the Longshot Bias Trader skill. - Trades against known longshot bias by fading overpriced longshots (buy NO when p ≤ 10%) and backing underpriced near-certainties (buy YES when p ≥ 88%) across all Polymarket categories. - Automatically discovers liquid markets, applies conviction-based sizing, and includes signal quality multipliers (mispricing depth, narrative salience, and resolution clarity). - Includes customizable risk controls, defaulting to paper trading mode for safety. - No external data dependencies; operates using only market prices and metadata.
元数据
Slug polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
版本 0.0.3
许可证 MIT-0
累计安装 0
当前安装数 0
历史版本数 4
常见问题

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader 是什么?

Systematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件,目前累计下载 189 次。

如何安装 Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader?

在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader」即可一键安装,无需额外配置。

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader 是免费的吗?

是的,Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader 完全免费,采用 MIT-0 许可证,可自由下载、安装和使用。

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader 支持哪些平台?

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader 跨平台运行,可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用(cross-platform)。

谁开发了 Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader?

由 diagnostikon(@diagnostikon)开发并维护,当前版本 v0.0.3。

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