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diagnostikon

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader

by diagnostikon · GitHub ↗ · v0.0.3 · MIT-0
cross-platform ⚠ suspicious
189
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
Description
Systematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to implement the advertised longshot-bias trading strategy, but take these precautions before installing: - Confirm the SIMMER_API_KEY: clawhub.json requires it; SKILL.md fails to mention it. Ask the publisher what permissions the key needs (paper-only vs. live trading) and whether it can be scoped to allow only paper trades. - Inspect the 'simmer-sdk' package: the skill depends on this pip package but no version or upstream source is provided. Verify it comes from a trustworthy registry (PyPI) and review its code or maintainers. - Verify live vs paper behavior: the code defaults to paper trading, but a --live option can make real trades. Ensure the platform prevents accidental use of live credentials or requires explicit confirmation. - Source provenance: there is no homepage or publisher info. If you plan to run against real money, ask for a canonical source repo, release notes, and an author identity you trust. - If possible, run the skill in a sandboxed environment with limited API credentials (read-only or paper-trade scope) and audit its network calls before granting broader access. These issues make the package internally inconsistent (documentation vs. declared requirements) — sensible to treat it as suspicious until the above clarifications are provided.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill Name: polymarket-longshot-bias-trader Version: 0.0.3 The skill implements a legitimate trading strategy for Polymarket based on the 'longshot bias' anomaly. The Python code (trader.py) uses the simmer-sdk to discover markets and execute trades, featuring a 'safe by default' paper-trading mode and configurable risk parameters. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found; the logic is transparent and aligns with the documentation in SKILL.md.
Capability Tags
cryptocan-make-purchasesrequires-sensitive-credentials
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name, description, and trader.py all align: it discovers markets and places trades to exploit longshot bias. However clawhub.json declares a required SIMMER_API_KEY and a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' while SKILL.md states 'no external API required' (which is misleading). Requiring a market/trading API is appropriate for this purpose, but the documentation omission is an inconsistency.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit behavior to market discovery, signal computation, and trade execution. The code enforces a paper-trading default (no --live) and contains market gating (spread, volume, days-to-resolve). It does not instruct reading unrelated files or exfiltrating data.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install script included, but clawhub.json lists a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). That is a normal distribution channel, but no package version is pinned and the skill source/homepage are missing. Confirm where 'simmer-sdk' will be installed from (PyPI or other) and review that package before allowing installation.
Credentials
The only required credential declared in clawhub.json is SIMMER_API_KEY, and trader.py reads a set of SIMMER_* tunables. These variables are proportional to a trading client that needs API access. The concern is SKILL.md did not document the API requirement, so a user could install without realizing an API key is needed (and what permissions that key grants).
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not marked always:true and autostart is false. disable-model-invocation is the platform default (agent may invoke autonomously), which is expected for a trading skill. Automaton entrypoint is trader.py, which is appropriate for a managed trading component.
How to Use
  1. Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
  2. Run the install command in chat: /install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
  3. After installation, invoke the skill by name or use /polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
  4. Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the Longshot Bias Trader skill. - Trades against known longshot bias by fading overpriced longshots (buy NO when p ≤ 10%) and backing underpriced near-certainties (buy YES when p ≥ 88%) across all Polymarket categories. - Automatically discovers liquid markets, applies conviction-based sizing, and includes signal quality multipliers (mispricing depth, narrative salience, and resolution clarity). - Includes customizable risk controls, defaulting to paper trading mode for safety. - No external data dependencies; operates using only market prices and metadata.
Metadata
Slug polymarket-longshot-bias-trader
Version 0.0.3
License MIT-0
All-time Installs 0
Active Installs 0
Total Versions 4
Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader?

Systematically trades against longshot bias by selling overpriced low-probability outcomes (buy NO ≤10%) and buying underpriced near-certainties (buy YES ≥88... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 189 downloads so far.

How do I install Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader?

Run "/install polymarket-longshot-bias-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.

Is Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader free?

Yes, Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.

Which platforms does Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader support?

Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).

Who created Polymarket Longshot Bias Trader?

It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.

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