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Polymarket Catastrophe Trader
作者
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
322
总下载
0
收藏
0
当前安装
5
版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader
功能描述
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records. Exploits two structural...
安全使用建议
Before installing, verify and reconcile the metadata: clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and declare a pip dependency on simmer-sdk, but the registry metadata and portions of SKILL.md claim 'no API required' — that mismatch is suspicious (could be sloppy docs or an attempt to hide required credentials). If you plan to use this skill: 1) Inspect the simmer-sdk package source (or vendor) to confirm there are no unexpected network endpoints or privileged calls. 2) Understand the permissions of SIMMER_API_KEY (can it place live trades, move funds, or only simulate?). 3) Keep the skill in paper mode until you audit behavior and trust the Simmer service. 4) Prefer running in a restricted environment and avoid providing any unrelated secrets or wallet/private-key environment variables. If the publisher cannot explain the metadata/documentation mismatch, treat the skill as untrusted.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-catastrophe-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed for Polymarket catastrophe and extreme weather prediction markets. It uses the 'simmer-sdk' to execute trades and implements a 'safe by default' mechanism that requires an explicit flag for live trading. The code logic in 'trader.py' is transparent, focusing on seasonal data and availability bias correction without any signs of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection.
能力标签
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The code and clawhub.json implement a Polymarket trader using a Simmer SDK (market discovery, sizing, and execution). That matches the described trading purpose. However the registry metadata (provided earlier) said 'required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and provide tunables named SIMMER_*. This metadata mismatch is incoherent and should be clarified.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md repeatedly says the catastrophe_bias logic 'works without any external API' and that the template needs no external API for that signal, but the runtime instructions and trader.py call SimmerClient and require an API key. The README/instructions therefore misrepresent runtime behavior. The SKILL.md otherwise does not instruct reading unrelated system files or exfiltrating data, but the misstatement about APIs is a scope creep / documentation mismatch.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install spec, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk'. Installing a package from PyPI is a common pattern; no odd download URLs or extract-from-arbitrary-host operations are present. You should still audit the simmer-sdk package source before granting keys.
Credentials
trader.py and clawhub.json require SIMMER_API_KEY and expose many SIMMER_* tunables. That is proportionate for a trading agent that uses Simmer to simulate/execute trades. However the registry metadata claimed no required env vars, creating a worrying discrepancy. Confirming intended required credentials and the exact scope/privileges of SIMMER_API_KEY is important (what can that key do? trade, withdraw funds, configure automata?).
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is automaton-managed with entrypoint trader.py but autostart is false and 'always' is not set. It can be invoked autonomously (normal default) but it does not demand force-inclusion or elevated system-wide privileges. The script will by default use a paper venue unless a --live flag (or live=True) is supplied.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-catastrophe-trader触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Improved strategy explanation: now details two structural trading edges (availability bias correction and seasonal data timing).
- Added comprehensive conviction-based signal logic, including built-in catastrophe type and seasonality multipliers (no external APIs required for baseline edge).
- Provides explicit default market discovery and sizing logic using conviction × bias multipliers.
- Expanded and clarified hazard-type table and seasonality factors for market edge calculation.
- Updated keywords list and practical examples to illustrate built-in signal and edge logic.
- No code or file changes were made; update is entirely in strategy documentation and guidance.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Catastrophe & Extreme Risk Trader.
- Enables trading on Polymarket prediction markets related to hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and extreme weather using configurable risk parameters.
- Integrates with NOAA, USGS, and NIFC data sources for signal development.
- Default mode is paper trading; real trading requires explicit activation.
- No automated trading runs until configured via Simmer UI.
- All major parameters are tunable through the Simmer UI and declared in clawhub.json.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket Catastrophe Trader 是什么？
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records. Exploits two structural... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 322 次。
如何安装 Polymarket Catastrophe Trader？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket Catastrophe Trader 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket Catastrophe Trader 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket Catastrophe Trader 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket Catastrophe Trader 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket Catastrophe Trader？
由 diagnostikon（@diagnostikon）开发并维护，当前版本 v0.0.3。
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