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Polymarket Catastrophe Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
322
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records. Exploits two structural...
Usage Guidance
Before installing, verify and reconcile the metadata: clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and declare a pip dependency on simmer-sdk, but the registry metadata and portions of SKILL.md claim 'no API required' — that mismatch is suspicious (could be sloppy docs or an attempt to hide required credentials). If you plan to use this skill: 1) Inspect the simmer-sdk package source (or vendor) to confirm there are no unexpected network endpoints or privileged calls. 2) Understand the permissions of SIMMER_API_KEY (can it place live trades, move funds, or only simulate?). 3) Keep the skill in paper mode until you audit behavior and trust the Simmer service. 4) Prefer running in a restricted environment and avoid providing any unrelated secrets or wallet/private-key environment variables. If the publisher cannot explain the metadata/documentation mismatch, treat the skill as untrusted.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-catastrophe-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed for Polymarket catastrophe and extreme weather prediction markets. It uses the 'simmer-sdk' to execute trades and implements a 'safe by default' mechanism that requires an explicit flag for live trading. The code logic in 'trader.py' is transparent, focusing on seasonal data and availability bias correction without any signs of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The code and clawhub.json implement a Polymarket trader using a Simmer SDK (market discovery, sizing, and execution). That matches the described trading purpose. However the registry metadata (provided earlier) said 'required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and provide tunables named SIMMER_*. This metadata mismatch is incoherent and should be clarified.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md repeatedly says the catastrophe_bias logic 'works without any external API' and that the template needs no external API for that signal, but the runtime instructions and trader.py call SimmerClient and require an API key. The README/instructions therefore misrepresent runtime behavior. The SKILL.md otherwise does not instruct reading unrelated system files or exfiltrating data, but the misstatement about APIs is a scope creep / documentation mismatch.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install spec, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk'. Installing a package from PyPI is a common pattern; no odd download URLs or extract-from-arbitrary-host operations are present. You should still audit the simmer-sdk package source before granting keys.
Credentials
trader.py and clawhub.json require SIMMER_API_KEY and expose many SIMMER_* tunables. That is proportionate for a trading agent that uses Simmer to simulate/execute trades. However the registry metadata claimed no required env vars, creating a worrying discrepancy. Confirming intended required credentials and the exact scope/privileges of SIMMER_API_KEY is important (what can that key do? trade, withdraw funds, configure automata?).
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is automaton-managed with entrypoint trader.py but autostart is false and 'always' is not set. It can be invoked autonomously (normal default) but it does not demand force-inclusion or elevated system-wide privileges. The script will by default use a paper venue unless a --live flag (or live=True) is supplied.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-catastrophe-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Improved strategy explanation: now details two structural trading edges (availability bias correction and seasonal data timing).
- Added comprehensive conviction-based signal logic, including built-in catastrophe type and seasonality multipliers (no external APIs required for baseline edge).
- Provides explicit default market discovery and sizing logic using conviction × bias multipliers.
- Expanded and clarified hazard-type table and seasonality factors for market edge calculation.
- Updated keywords list and practical examples to illustrate built-in signal and edge logic.
- No code or file changes were made; update is entirely in strategy documentation and guidance.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Catastrophe & Extreme Risk Trader.
- Enables trading on Polymarket prediction markets related to hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and extreme weather using configurable risk parameters.
- Integrates with NOAA, USGS, and NIFC data sources for signal development.
- Default mode is paper trading; real trading requires explicit activation.
- No automated trading runs until configured via Simmer UI.
- All major parameters are tunable through the Simmer UI and declared in clawhub.json.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Catastrophe Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on hurricane seasons, earthquake probabilities, wildfire forecasts, and extreme weather records. Exploits two structural... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 322 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Catastrophe Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-catastrophe-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Catastrophe Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Catastrophe Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Catastrophe Trader support?
Polymarket Catastrophe Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Catastrophe Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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