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Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader
作者
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
223
总下载
0
收藏
0
当前安装
4
版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader
功能描述
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting...
安全使用建议
This skill appears to be what it says: a Polymarket precipitation-range arbitrage trader that uses the Simmer platform. Before installing, confirm you are comfortable granting SIMMER_API_KEY (it authorizes trades). Review the simmer-sdk package (its source, maintainers, and permission model) and restrict the API key scope if possible (paper/trade-only scopes if available). Keep autostart disabled and test in paper mode (default) to observe behavior before ever running with --live. If you need higher assurance, inspect the remainder of trader.py (the truncated portion) and any network calls made by simmer-sdk to verify there are no unexpected external endpoints or credential exfiltration.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a functional trading bot designed to exploit mathematical mispricings in Polymarket precipitation markets. It uses the 'simmer-sdk' to analyze probability distributions and execute trades based on sum deviations and monotonicity breaks. The code in 'trader.py' includes appropriate safety safeguards, such as a default simulation mode and configurable risk thresholds, and lacks any indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection.
能力标签
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
Name/description (trading Polymarket precipitation-range markets) lines up with what the package requests and does: clawhub.json requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk, and trader.py uses SimmerClient to discover markets, build distributions, detect violations, and execute trades. There are no unrelated credentials, binaries, or config paths requested.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs discovery, parsing, distribution construction, ranking, and trading logic. The runtime code implements parsing and distribution/violation logic and uses only declared tunables and SIMMER_API_KEY. The skill defaults to simulated paper trades and only places real USDC with an explicit --live flag. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated files or external secrets.
Install Mechanism
This is an instruction-only skill with no install spec; the metadata declares a pip dependency on simmer-sdk. That is a normal, proportional dependency for a skill that uses a Simmer client. There are no downloads from arbitrary URLs or extract/install steps hidden in the package.
Credentials
The only required credential is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in clawhub.json and used in code) which is appropriate for a trading automation. The skill also reads various tunables from environment (SIMMER_*), but those are declared in clawhub.json. Because SIMMER_API_KEY is high-value (authorizes trading), the user should treat it carefully and verify the key's scope and trustworthiness of simmer-sdk.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false, cron: null, and always: false — nothing forces the skill to run automatically. The automaton metadata marks the entrypoint (trader.py) for managed execution but that is consistent with a trading agent template. No modifications to other skills or system-wide config are present.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the 48h Precipitation Range Trader skill.
- Detects and trades on mispricings in Polymarket precipitation-range markets by reconstructing implied probability distributions.
- Flags and arbitrages two core violations: range bins not summing to 100% and monotonicity breaks in "more than X inches" cumulative markets.
- Supports multiple cities (e.g., Seattle, Portland, Denver, Chicago, Miami) with flexible configuration and risk controls.
- Defaults to safe paper trading mode; live trading only on explicit request.
- Designed for modular agent integration; all market plumbing and safeguards included.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader 是什么？
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 223 次。
如何安装 Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader？
由 diagnostikon（@diagnostikon）开发并维护，当前版本 v0.0.3。
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