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Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
223
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader
Description
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to be what it says: a Polymarket precipitation-range arbitrage trader that uses the Simmer platform. Before installing, confirm you are comfortable granting SIMMER_API_KEY (it authorizes trades). Review the simmer-sdk package (its source, maintainers, and permission model) and restrict the API key scope if possible (paper/trade-only scopes if available). Keep autostart disabled and test in paper mode (default) to observe behavior before ever running with --live. If you need higher assurance, inspect the remainder of trader.py (the truncated portion) and any network calls made by simmer-sdk to verify there are no unexpected external endpoints or credential exfiltration.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a functional trading bot designed to exploit mathematical mispricings in Polymarket precipitation markets. It uses the 'simmer-sdk' to analyze probability distributions and execute trades based on sum deviations and monotonicity breaks. The code in 'trader.py' includes appropriate safety safeguards, such as a default simulation mode and configurable risk thresholds, and lacks any indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description (trading Polymarket precipitation-range markets) lines up with what the package requests and does: clawhub.json requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk, and trader.py uses SimmerClient to discover markets, build distributions, detect violations, and execute trades. There are no unrelated credentials, binaries, or config paths requested.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs discovery, parsing, distribution construction, ranking, and trading logic. The runtime code implements parsing and distribution/violation logic and uses only declared tunables and SIMMER_API_KEY. The skill defaults to simulated paper trades and only places real USDC with an explicit --live flag. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated files or external secrets.
Install Mechanism
This is an instruction-only skill with no install spec; the metadata declares a pip dependency on simmer-sdk. That is a normal, proportional dependency for a skill that uses a Simmer client. There are no downloads from arbitrary URLs or extract/install steps hidden in the package.
Credentials
The only required credential is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in clawhub.json and used in code) which is appropriate for a trading automation. The skill also reads various tunables from environment (SIMMER_*), but those are declared in clawhub.json. Because SIMMER_API_KEY is high-value (authorizes trading), the user should treat it carefully and verify the key's scope and trustworthiness of simmer-sdk.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false, cron: null, and always: false — nothing forces the skill to run automatically. The automaton metadata marks the entrypoint (trader.py) for managed execution but that is consistent with a trading agent template. No modifications to other skills or system-wide config are present.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the 48h Precipitation Range Trader skill.
- Detects and trades on mispricings in Polymarket precipitation-range markets by reconstructing implied probability distributions.
- Flags and arbitrages two core violations: range bins not summing to 100% and monotonicity breaks in "more than X inches" cumulative markets.
- Supports multiple cities (e.g., Seattle, Portland, Denver, Chicago, Miami) with flexible configuration and risk controls.
- Defaults to safe paper trading mode; live trading only on explicit request.
- Designed for modular agent integration; all market plumbing and safeguards included.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader?
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 223 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-48h-precipitation-range-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader support?
Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 48h Precipitation Range Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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