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Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine
作者
JamieRossouw
· GitHub ↗
· v1.0.0
896
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当前安装
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版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install argus-edge
功能描述
Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly c...
使用说明 (SKILL.md)
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine
The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.
Core Formula
Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (\x3C30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds
Strategy Rules
Freshness Guard
- Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
- Prioritize markets \x3C30 min old (primary window)
- Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%
Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)
TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)
Asset Calibration
| Asset | TA Reliability | Bias | Min Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 0.75 | Neutral | ±3 |
| ETH | 0.80 | UP+0.05 | ±2 |
| SOL | 0.90 | UP+0.05 | ±1 |
| XRP | 0.70 | UP+0.08 | ±2 |
Usage
Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now
Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market
Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing
Battle-Tested
Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).
安全使用建议
This skill is essentially a strategy document — it doesn't install code or request credentials, so it's coherent with its stated purpose. Before using it: (1) recognize the win-rate/validation claims are unverifiable from the SKILL.md alone; treat them skeptically. (2) The skill does not provide market-data sources or execution instructions, so an agent using it will need to fetch market quotes and/or place bets — ensure the agent does not have API keys, exchange credentials, or automated trading permissions you don't intend it to use. (3) If you plan to implement these rules programmatically, validate with small, non-production stakes first and add safeguards (rate limits, bankroll caps, explicit confirmation before placing real bets). (4) If you want a fully-automated tool, insist on concrete data-source and execution steps (APIs, authentication model) before granting any credentials.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: argus-edge
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle contains standard metadata and a `SKILL.md` file that describes a prediction market betting strategy. The markdown content is purely descriptive, outlining formulas, rules, and usage examples. There are no instructions for the AI agent that could lead to prompt injection, unauthorized command execution, data exfiltration, or any other malicious behavior. All content aligns with the stated purpose of providing a betting strategy.
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The name/description (Argus-style prediction-market betting strategy) matches the SKILL.md content (edge calculation, Kelly sizing, freshness/consensus rules). No unrelated credentials, binaries, or installs are requested.
Instruction Scope
The SKILL.md contains formulas, rules, and usage examples but no concrete implementation steps for obtaining market data or placing bets (no API endpoints, no commands). That makes the instructions intentionally high-level: coherent for a strategy doc, but it grants broad discretion to the agent to fetch market data or interact with exchanges if the agent is given such capabilities elsewhere.
Install Mechanism
Instruction-only skill with no install spec and no code files; nothing will be written to disk or installed by this skill itself.
Credentials
No environment variables, credentials, or config paths are requested. The skill does not ask for unrelated secrets or system access.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false (default) and normal autonomous invocation permitted. The skill does not request elevated persistence or modify other skills or agent-wide settings.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install argus-edge - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/argus-edge触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v1.0.0
Initial release: Argus strategy with freshness guard, counter-consensus rule (L023), asset calibration. Validated 77.8% WR on primary bets.
元数据
常见问题
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine 是什么？
Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly c... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 896 次。
如何安装 Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install argus-edge」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine 是免费的吗？
是的，Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine 完全免费（开源免费），可自由下载、安装和使用。
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine 支持哪些平台？
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine？
由 JamieRossouw（@jamierossouw）开发并维护，当前版本 v1.0.0。
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