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Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine
by
JamieRossouw
· GitHub ↗
· v1.0.0
896
Downloads
1
Stars
3
Active Installs
1
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install argus-edge
Description
Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly c...
README (SKILL.md)
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine
The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.
Core Formula
Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (\x3C30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds
Strategy Rules
Freshness Guard
- Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
- Prioritize markets \x3C30 min old (primary window)
- Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%
Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)
TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)
Asset Calibration
| Asset | TA Reliability | Bias | Min Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 0.75 | Neutral | ±3 |
| ETH | 0.80 | UP+0.05 | ±2 |
| SOL | 0.90 | UP+0.05 | ±1 |
| XRP | 0.70 | UP+0.08 | ±2 |
Usage
Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now
Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market
Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing
Battle-Tested
Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).
Usage Guidance
This skill is essentially a strategy document — it doesn't install code or request credentials, so it's coherent with its stated purpose. Before using it: (1) recognize the win-rate/validation claims are unverifiable from the SKILL.md alone; treat them skeptically. (2) The skill does not provide market-data sources or execution instructions, so an agent using it will need to fetch market quotes and/or place bets — ensure the agent does not have API keys, exchange credentials, or automated trading permissions you don't intend it to use. (3) If you plan to implement these rules programmatically, validate with small, non-production stakes first and add safeguards (rate limits, bankroll caps, explicit confirmation before placing real bets). (4) If you want a fully-automated tool, insist on concrete data-source and execution steps (APIs, authentication model) before granting any credentials.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: argus-edge
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle contains standard metadata and a `SKILL.md` file that describes a prediction market betting strategy. The markdown content is purely descriptive, outlining formulas, rules, and usage examples. There are no instructions for the AI agent that could lead to prompt injection, unauthorized command execution, data exfiltration, or any other malicious behavior. All content aligns with the stated purpose of providing a betting strategy.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The name/description (Argus-style prediction-market betting strategy) matches the SKILL.md content (edge calculation, Kelly sizing, freshness/consensus rules). No unrelated credentials, binaries, or installs are requested.
Instruction Scope
The SKILL.md contains formulas, rules, and usage examples but no concrete implementation steps for obtaining market data or placing bets (no API endpoints, no commands). That makes the instructions intentionally high-level: coherent for a strategy doc, but it grants broad discretion to the agent to fetch market data or interact with exchanges if the agent is given such capabilities elsewhere.
Install Mechanism
Instruction-only skill with no install spec and no code files; nothing will be written to disk or installed by this skill itself.
Credentials
No environment variables, credentials, or config paths are requested. The skill does not ask for unrelated secrets or system access.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false (default) and normal autonomous invocation permitted. The skill does not request elevated persistence or modify other skills or agent-wide settings.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install argus-edge - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/argus-edge - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.0.0
Initial release: Argus strategy with freshness guard, counter-consensus rule (L023), asset calibration. Validated 77.8% WR on primary bets.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine?
Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy. Computes expected value from TA-implied probability vs market odds, sizes bets via Kelly c... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 896 downloads so far.
How do I install Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine?
Run "/install argus-edge" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine free?
Yes, Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine is completely free (open-source). You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine support?
Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine?
It is built and maintained by JamieRossouw (@jamierossouw); the current version is v1.0.0.
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