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Install in OpenClaw
/install threshold-trader
Description
Automatically trades prediction markets when prices deviate beyond your configured probability threshold with Kelly Criterion sizing and safety checks.
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to be what it says: a trading template that requires only your SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk. Before installing: 1) Confirm you trust the Simmer service and the source of this skill; 2) Keep the API key secret (the skill will use it to place trades); 3) Run in 'sim' (paper) mode first — the code defaults to dry-run but can place real trades with --live; 4) Note the automaton cron will run every 15 minutes when managed by the platform, so disable automation or avoid enabling live mode until you’ve tested; 5) If you have concerns, review the threshold_trader.py code (it’s contained in the bundle) or run it in an isolated environment first. Also be aware of a small metadata inconsistency: the top-level summary in the provided manifest claims 'no required env vars' but the code and clawhub.json require SIMMER_API_KEY.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: threshold-trader
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle is a legitimate trading bot template for prediction markets using the simmer-sdk. The Python code (threshold_trader.py) implements standard trading logic, including Kelly Criterion position sizing, safety checks for slippage, and automated trade execution/redemption via a dedicated SDK. The shell scripts (publish.sh, quick-publish.sh) are standard utility scripts for deploying the skill to the ClawHub platform. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found; the handling of API keys and financial transactions is consistent with the skill's stated purpose.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill claims to trade prediction markets and requires a Simmer API key and the simmer-sdk; the Python code calls SimmerClient methods (get_markets, trade, auto_redeem, etc.) which are appropriate for that purpose. There are no unrelated credentials or unexpected binaries requested.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructions and the Python code stick to market discovery, edge calculation, safety checks, sizing, execution, and redemption. Publish scripts call npx and git, but those are for publishing the package (not runtime trading). The runtime code does not read system files or unrelated environment variables beyond the declared configuration.
Install Mechanism
There is no download-from-URL install step. The package expects a pip dependency (simmer-sdk) and contains Python code; that is proportionate to its function. No extract-from-arbitrary-URL or non-standard binary installs are present.
Credentials
The primary credential is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in clawhub.json and used by the code). Other env vars are non-sensitive configuration (thresholds, venue, sizing). Note: top-level metadata in the evaluation header said 'Required env vars: none' which contradicts clawhub.json and the SKILL.md; the actual code requires SIMMER_API_KEY.
Persistence & Privilege
clawhub.json configures an automaton with cron '*/15 * * * *' and an entrypoint, so when installed the agent runtime may schedule scans every 15 minutes. By default the script is dry-run unless run with --live; automated scheduling combined with enabling live mode could execute real trades (financial impact), so users should be deliberate about running with live enabled.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install threshold-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/threshold-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.0.0
Threshold Trader 1.0.0 – Initial Release
- Launches a simple template skill for probability-threshold prediction market trading.
- Trades when market prices diverge from your configured probability by a minimum edge amount.
- Features Kelly Criterion-based sizing, flip-flop and slippage safeguards, and automatic redemption.
- Fully configurable via environment variables; remixable for your own signals or models.
- Dry-run mode is default for safe testing; real trading requires explicit activation.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Threshold Trader?
Automatically trades prediction markets when prices deviate beyond your configured probability threshold with Kelly Criterion sizing and safety checks. It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 47 downloads so far.
How do I install Threshold Trader?
Run "/install threshold-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Threshold Trader free?
Yes, Threshold Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Threshold Trader support?
Threshold Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Threshold Trader?
It is built and maintained by skybinjf (@skybinjf); the current version is v1.0.0.
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