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Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
179
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0
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4
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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-geopolitics-deadline-cascade-trader
Description
Trades temporal inconsistencies across geopolitical markets with different deadlines. When P(event by later date) < P(event by earlier date), the later-deadl...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears internally consistent for automated trading: it legitimately needs SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk client. Before installing or running with real funds, do the following: (1) Run it in the default paper/sim mode to verify behavior. (2) Review the simmer-sdk package source (GitHub/PyPI) to ensure it’s the expected client and not malicious. (3) Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as high-value—use least-privilege credentials if possible and rotate/regenerate keys if you later revoke access. (4) Do not run with --live until you’ve tested signal logic, risk parameters, and limits in paper mode. (5) Note the publisher/homepage are absent—exercise caution and prefer packages with a known, audited upstream when handling real funds.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-geopolitics-deadline-cascade-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to identify and exploit mathematical inconsistencies (temporal monotonicity and logical inversions) in geopolitical prediction markets on Polymarket. The code in `trader.py` implements the strategy described in `SKILL.md` using the `simmer-sdk`, featuring robust safety mechanisms such as a default paper-trading mode (`venue='sim'`), slippage checks, and configurable risk parameters. No evidence of malicious intent, data exfiltration, or prompt injection was found; the script strictly interacts with the designated trading API using provided credentials.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description claim arbitrage trading on geopolitical deadline markets. The package only requires a trading API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) and the simmer-sdk client and contains code to discover markets, parse deadlines/themes, compute signals, and place trades. These requirements are consistent with the trading purpose.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market discovery, parsing, sizing, and execution. The runtime instructions and code only read SIMMER_* tunables from environment variables and use the SimmerClient to interact with the trading venue. There are no instructions to read unrelated files, system credentials, or to transmit data to unexpected endpoints in the provided files.
Install Mechanism
No explicit installer script is included; clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' (PyPI). Installing third‑party packages from PyPI is expected for this use case but is a moderate-risk operation compared with instruction-only skills because the package code will run locally—verify the simmer-sdk package source and integrity before installing.
Credentials
The only required credential is SIMMER_API_KEY (trading authority). The script also reads a set of SIMMER_* tunables (MAX_POSITION, MIN_TRADE, etc.) which are declared in clawhub.json. The requested environment variables are proportional to a trading skill and are used as expected in the code.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always-enabled (always: false), autostart and cron are disabled by default, and the code only attempts to apply its own skill config via SimmerClient.apply_skill_config (wrapped in a try/except). It does not modify other skills or system-wide settings. Live trading requires an explicit --live flag.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-geopolitics-deadline-cascade-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-geopolitics-deadline-cascade-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader.
- Scans Polymarket geopolitical markets to detect and trade on temporal monotonicity violations (when later-deadline probabilities are lower than earlier ones).
- Identifies and flags diplomacy-escalation pricing inversions within conflicts.
- Offers conviction-based trade sizing; supports both paper and live trading modes.
- All key strategy logic, safety limits, and risk tunables clearly documented for user customization.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader?
Trades temporal inconsistencies across geopolitical markets with different deadlines. When P(event by later date) < P(event by earlier date), the later-deadl... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 179 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-geopolitics-deadline-cascade-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader support?
Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Geopolitics Deadline Cascade Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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