← Back to Skills Marketplace
Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
197
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-24h-price-curve-arb-trader
Description
Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears internally consistent: it needs SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk to query/execute trades, which matches its purpose. Before installing or running live: (1) keep it in paper mode until you review behavior; (2) verify the simmer-sdk package source/reputation and inspect its network behavior; (3) supply a least-privilege SIMMER_API_KEY (rotate it after testing) and avoid using production funds until you’ve validated decisions and sizing; (4) review any Simmer UI integrations and tunables to ensure limits (max position, min trade, max positions) match your risk tolerance.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-24h-price-curve-arb-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to identify and exploit mathematical inconsistencies (monotonicity and range-sum violations) in Polymarket price-threshold markets. The code in trader.py correctly implements the described strategy using the simmer-sdk, includes safety features like a default simulation mode, and lacks any indicators of data exfiltration, obfuscation, or malicious intent.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description = probability-curve arbitrage on Polymarket; the skill requires a Simmer SDK client and a Simmer API key to discover markets and place trades — this is appropriate and expected for the stated purpose.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market discovery, curve construction, violation detection, and trade execution. The instructions emphasize paper trading by default and require an explicit --live flag for real trades; there are no instructions to read unrelated files or exfiltrate data.
Install Mechanism
No custom install script; clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' which the code imports. A PyPI dependency is expected for this functionality but represents a moderate supply-chain risk relative to instruction-only skills — verify the package's reputation/source before installing.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required (declared). The code also reads tunable environment variables (risk/size thresholds) which are proportional to a trading bot. There are no unrelated credentials or broad system config accesses.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false and always:false — the skill will not run automatically by default. automaton.managed points to trader.py as an entrypoint (used by the Simmer runtime); this is reasonable for a trading skill but means the runtime could start it if configured. No evidence the skill modifies other skills or system-wide settings.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-24h-price-curve-arb-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-24h-price-curve-arb-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Initial release of 24h Price Curve Arbitrage Trader skill:
- Detects and trades mathematical mispricings in Polymarket crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve.
- Flags and exploits violations such as monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies between related "above"/"between" markets.
- Includes configurable risk parameters, safety defaults to simulated trading mode, and requires SIMMER_API_KEY for use.
- Provides out-of-the-box market discovery, curve construction, violation ranking, and automated trade execution.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader?
Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 197 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-24h-price-curve-arb-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader support?
Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 24h Price Curve Arb Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
More Skills