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Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
201
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader
Description
Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to be what it says: an arbitrage trader that uses the simmer-sdk and requires a SIMMER_API_KEY. Before installing: (1) only provide a SIMMER_API_KEY you trust and that has limited/revocable permissions; (2) test thoroughly in paper mode (default) and verify behavior before using --live; (3) audit or sandbox the simmer-sdk dependency (it will be installed via pip); (4) confirm clawhub.json is the authoritative manifest (the prompt header contradicted it); (5) be aware of financial risk when enabling live trading and rotate/revoke the API key if you stop using the skill.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill implements a legitimate mathematical arbitrage strategy for Polymarket price-threshold markets, focusing on detecting monotonicity and range-sum inconsistencies in implied probability curves. The implementation in `trader.py` aligns perfectly with the strategy described in `SKILL.md`, utilizing the `simmer-sdk` for market data and trade execution. There are no signs of malicious behavior, data exfiltration, or prompt injection; the code includes safety features like a default simulation mode and risk-management tunables defined in `clawhub.json`.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name/description (price-curve arbitrage on Polymarket) matches the included trader.py and SKILL.md. The files show market-discovery, curve construction, violation detection, and trade execution via Simmer — all coherent with the stated purpose. Note: the top-level registry summary in the prompt said "Required env vars: none", but clawhub.json and SKILL.md both require SIMMER_API_KEY; the file-level manifests are internally consistent and appropriate for a trading skill.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit scope to discovering Polymarket price-threshold markets, building implied-CDF curves, ranking violations, and placing trades through Simmer. The skill reads only its configured SIMMER_* tunables and the SIMMER_API_KEY, and it defaults to venue="sim" (paper) unless --live is used. There are no instructions to read arbitrary user files, system credentials, or to send data to unexpected external endpoints.
Install Mechanism
There is no install script, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' (PyPI + GitHub referenced). Installing one PyPI SDK is proportional for a broker/venue client; this is moderate-risk (standard for integration), not the high risk of arbitrary URL downloads.
Credentials
The only required secret is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in SKILL.md and clawhub.json) and several tunable SIMMER_* variables. Requesting a single API key to a trading/broker SDK is proportional to the bot's functionality. The key is high-value (trading authority) and should be treated accordingly.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart is false, cron is null, and always is not set. The automaton entrypoint is trader.py but nothing runs automatically by default. The skill can be invoked autonomously by the agent (normal default) but it does not demand permanent or elevated platform privileges.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of 48h Price Curve Arbitrage Trader.
- Detects and trades arbitrage opportunities from structural mispricings in Polymarket crypto price-threshold markets.
- Reconstructs implied probability distribution curves and flags monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies.
- Includes fully pipelined market discovery, curve construction, violation ranking, and trade execution with tunable risk controls.
- Defaults to safe paper trading; requires explicit flag for live trading.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader?
Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 201 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader support?
Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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