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Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
197
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-24h-precipitation-range-trader
Description
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting...
Usage Guidance
This appears to be a coherent Polymarket trading skill that intentionally defaults to paper trading and requires one high-value credential (SIMMER_API_KEY). Before installing: (1) confirm you trust the simmer-sdk pip package and inspect its source, (2) do not run the script with --live unless you intend to place real USDC trades and have reviewed risk/tunables, (3) restrict the SIMMER_API_KEY permissions and rotate it if you later uninstall the skill, and (4) if you want stricter safety, run initially in a sandboxed environment and review logs of any live execution.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-24h-precipitation-range-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a functional trading bot designed to identify and trade mathematical mispricings in Polymarket precipitation markets. The code in `trader.py` implements a clear strategy for detecting probability sum violations and monotonicity breaks using the `simmer-sdk`. It includes several safety features, such as defaulting to paper trading (simulation mode), slippage and spread safeguards, and configurable risk parameters via `clawhub.json`. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection were found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description match the implementation: the code discovers precipitation-range markets, reconstructs distributions, detects sum/monotonicity violations, and places trades via a SimmerClient. Required artifacts (SIMMER_API_KEY, simmer-sdk) are appropriate for a trading skill.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit actions to market discovery, parsing, analysis, and trade execution via the Simmer API. The skill does not instruct reading unrelated system files or exfiltrating data to third-party endpoints. It explicitly defaults to simulation unless run with --live.
Install Mechanism
No external download URLs or extract steps; installation is via pip dependency 'simmer-sdk' declared in clawhub.json. Using a pip package is a common pattern but carries the usual supply-chain risks—review the simmer-sdk package/source before installing.
Credentials
The only required env var is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared). The script also reads tunable SIMMER_* variables from env which are declared as tunables in clawhub.json. Requesting a single trading API key is proportionate; treat SIMMER_API_KEY as high-value and scope permissions as appropriate.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false and cron: null mean the skill will not run automatically by default. always is not set. The automaton entrypoint is declared but not autostarted — normal for an optional trading skill.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-24h-precipitation-range-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-24h-precipitation-range-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of 24h Precipitation Range Trader for Polymarket
- Detects and trades on distribution-sum violations and monotonicity breaks in precipitation-range markets across multiple cities
- Reconstructs implied probability distributions from range bins and cumulative "more than X inches" markets
- Includes paper trading mode by default; live trading requires a command-line flag
- Configurable risk parameters (e.g., min/max trade size, thresholds, max open positions) via tunables
- Requires `simmer-sdk` for execution and market discovery
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader?
Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 197 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-24h-precipitation-range-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader support?
Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 24h Precipitation Range Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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