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Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
186
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-48h-geopolitics-cluster-trader
Description
Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears coherent for automated trading on Polymarket via the Simmer platform. Before installing: (1) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY if you trust the Simmer integration and understand the key grants trading authority; keep funds limited. (2) Test extensively in paper/sim mode (default) and inspect or run the code in a safe environment before using --live. (3) Review the simmer-sdk package and its network behavior. (4) Keep autostart disabled until you are confident in behavior and tunables. (5) Rotate API keys and limit permissions if possible; never reuse high-privilege keys across unrelated tools.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-48h-geopolitics-cluster-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill bundle implements a legitimate trading strategy for Polymarket geopolitical event clusters, focusing on logical consistency arbitrage (e.g., strike-count monotonicity and prerequisite chains). The code in `trader.py` uses the `simmer-sdk` to interact with markets and includes robust safety features such as a paper-trading default mode, spread/liquidity gates, and risk-management tunables defined in `clawhub.json`. No evidence of malicious intent, data exfiltration, or unauthorized execution was found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description = automated trading on Polymarket. The package requires SIMMER_API_KEY and depends on 'simmer-sdk' (clawhub.json). The Simmer client usage in trader.py matches the described trading functionality and tunables. Requested resources are proportional to a trading bot.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md describes market discovery, cluster detection, and trading; the included trader.py implements parsing, clustering, and client interactions. Instructions default to paper trading and only perform live trades with an explicit --live flag. SKILL.md and code do not direct the agent to read unrelated system files or external personal endpoints.
Install Mechanism
This is an instruction-only skill with one code file, and clawhub.json declares a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). No arbitrary downloads or extract steps are present. Installing a third-party Python package is expected for this purpose but increases runtime surface compared with a pure-instruction skill.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is declared as required. The code reads several tunable env vars with safe defaults; those are reasonable for risk control. The single required credential is directly related to trading authority and is therefore proportionate — but it is high-value and should be guarded.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false and cron: null mean the skill does not run automatically out-of-the-box. The automaton entrypoint is set (trader.py) but managed; autonomous invocation is allowed by platform default and is not itself a problem. The package does not set always:true or request system-wide config changes.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-48h-geopolitics-cluster-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-48h-geopolitics-cluster-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader.
- Detects and trades logical inconsistencies in clusters of related geopolitical Polymarket events, such as strike-count, daily military action, and escalation markets.
- Implements checks for monotonicity violations, cross-region correlation, and prerequisite event chains.
- Supports risk controls and adjustable trade parameters through Simmer UI.
- Runs in paper (sim) mode by default, with live trading only available via explicit flag.
- No automatic execution; must be started manually or configured via Simmer UI.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader?
Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 186 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-48h-geopolitics-cluster-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader support?
Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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