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Polymarket Science Milestones Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
326
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-science-milestones-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on scientific breakthroughs, Nobel Prizes, physics discoveries, and research milestones. Corrects for systematic retail...
Usage Guidance
Before installing: 1) Confirm the SIMMER_API_KEY requirement — registry metadata omitted it but trader.py and clawhub.json require it. Only provide an API key scoped with the minimum required permissions (ideally paper-trading-only key) and rotate/remove keys after testing. 2) Review and vet the simmer-sdk package (pip) since it will handle network calls and trade execution. 3) Test thoroughly in paper mode (default) and verify CLI/automation cannot be started in live mode accidentally. 4) Because the skill can place financial trades when enabled, treat autonomous invocation carefully and restrict who/what can invoke it. 5) If the skill's source/origin is unknown, ask the publisher for provenance or prefer installing only from a trusted source. If you want, I can list exact lines in trader.py and clawhub.json that require the API key and tunables.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-science-milestones-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a specialized Polymarket trading bot designed to trade on scientific research milestones and Nobel Prize predictions. It implements a 'hype-dampening' strategy in `trader.py` that uses keyword analysis to adjust trade conviction based on historical replication rates of specific scientific fields (e.g., fusion, superconductors, CRISPR). The code uses the `simmer-sdk` for market interaction, defaults to a safe paper-trading mode (simulation), and contains no evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's purpose (trading Polymarket markets) matches the code: trader.py uses a SimmerClient to discover markets and place trades. However the registry-level metadata in the evaluation header claimed no required environment variables, while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and pip dependency simmer-sdk. That metadata mismatch is a meaningful inconsistency (the skill will fail or behave unexpectedly unless SIMMER_API_KEY is provided).
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit actions to market discovery, sizing, and trade execution; they don't instruct reading arbitrary system files or exfiltrating unrelated secrets. The skill expects the agent to supply 'alpha' signals but the runtime instructions and code do not request unrelated system data.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit platform install script, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency (simmer-sdk). Installing a public pip package is a moderate-risk, common mechanism — acceptable if you trust simmer-sdk. There are no downloads from arbitrary URLs or obfuscated install steps in the provided files.
Credentials
The code requires SIMMER_API_KEY (os.environ["SIMMER_API_KEY"]) to create a SimmerClient; clawhub.json also lists SIMMER_API_KEY as a required env. That credential is proportionate to a trading bot, but the top-level 'Requirements' reported earlier stated no required env vars — a discrepancy. Also the skill reads and honors SIMMER_* tunables (non-secret risk limits); those are expected but should be reviewed. Ensure the API key scope/permissions are limited before provisioning.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false (good). The skill is automaton-managed (clawhub.json automaton.entrypoint -> trader.py) and can run autonomously; that's expected for a trading skill. It defaults to paper trading (venue='sim') by default, and real trades require an explicit --live flag, but if invoked with live mode it can execute real trades using the provided API key — which has financial risk and a larger blast radius than non-financial skills.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-science-milestones-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-science-milestones-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Adds systematic science "hype correction" and Nobel Prize calendar timing multipliers to trading logic.
- Expands and explains category-specific edge: retail overpricing of breakthrough claims (fusion, RT superconductors, AGI, cancer cure).
- Updates risk/tunable parameter defaults (volume, spread, max positions, trade thresholds).
- Integrates detailed signal logic for conviction sizing and science bias (with clear multipliers).
- Enriches documentation on market mispricing sources and historical context for trader edges.
- Clarifies that Clarivate Citation Laureates and other sources should inform signal, not only keywords.
v1.0.0
Science Milestones & Research Trader skill initial release:
- Trades on Polymarket science-related prediction markets using real-time signals from preprint servers and citation data.
- Defaults to safe paper trading mode; real trades only with explicit `--live` flag.
- Includes support for tuning risk and trading parameters via Simmer UI.
- Provides strategy templates for leveraging arXiv, Semantic Scholar, and Clarivate Laureates data.
- Requires SIMMER_API_KEY credential for operation.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Science Milestones Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on scientific breakthroughs, Nobel Prizes, physics discoveries, and research milestones. Corrects for systematic retail... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 326 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Science Milestones Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-science-milestones-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Science Milestones Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Science Milestones Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Science Milestones Trader support?
Polymarket Science Milestones Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Science Milestones Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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