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Polymarket Supply Chain Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
444
Downloads
0
Stars
1
Active Installs
10
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-supply-chain-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on supply chain disruptions, port congestion, shipping delays, commodity prices, and logistics outcomes. Use whe...
Usage Guidance
This package appears to do what it says: a Polymarket trading automaton that uses the Simmer SDK and requires SIMMER_API_KEY. Before installing or enabling live trading: 1) Confirm the registry metadata discrepancy (the repository requires SIMMER_API_KEY even though the top-level brief said none). 2) Verify the simmer-sdk pip package is from a trusted source (check its PyPI project page or vendor) and inspect any network behavior of that SDK if possible. 3) Start in paper/sim mode only and review logs/trades for several cycles before using --live. 4) Keep any live-capable SIMMER_API_KEY out of shared environments and rotate/revoke keys if you upload a live key accidentally. 5) If you need higher assurance, ask the skill author for the simmer-sdk origin and a short threat model for apply_skill_config() behavior (it may load settings from Simmer UI).
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-supply-chain-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to interact with Polymarket prediction markets related to supply chain and logistics. It features a transparent implementation in `trader.py` that includes safety mechanisms such as defaulting to paper trading (simulation mode) and requiring an explicit `--live` flag for financial transactions. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection were found in `SKILL.md` or the supporting configuration files.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill is a Polymarket-focused trading bot and its code, tunables (SIMMER_*), and required SIMMER_API_KEY are coherent with that purpose. One mismatch: the registry summary at the top of the report listed 'Required env vars: none', but both SKILL.md and clawhub.json (and trader.py) require SIMMER_API_KEY — likely an out-of-date registry metadata entry.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit actions to market discovery and trade execution via the Simmer SDK (SimmerClient). The skill reads only SIMMER_* env vars and market fields; it documents a safe default (paper trading) and requires an explicit --live flag for real trades. There are no instructions to read unrelated system files or to exfiltrate data to unknown endpoints in the repository.
Install Mechanism
This is instruction-first with a clawhub.json that lists a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). There is no arbitrary download URL or archive extraction. Requiring a pip package is reasonable for SDK usage but represents moderate risk: review or verify the simmer-sdk package source before installing.
Credentials
The only credential required is SIMMER_API_KEY (trading authority), which is appropriate and expected for a trading skill. The many SIMMER_* tunables are reasonable for trading parameters. No unrelated credentials or broad system secrets are requested by the code.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always-installed (always:false), automaton.managed is true but autostart is false and cron is null — it will not run automatically on install. The skill does not modify other skills' configs. Default behavior allows autonomous invocation (platform default) but this is not combined with always:true or extra privileges.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-supply-chain-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-supply-chain-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.7
Wider thresholds, lower filters, add get_fast_markets + bulk scan, backward-compatible with older SDK
v1.0.6
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.5
### v1.0.5 – Adds disruption seasonality & conviction-based sizing
- Now sizes trades using conviction-based weighting, amplified by a built-in disruption bias (Q4 shipping seasonality, commodity predictability).
- Introduces a disruption bias multiplier with context-aware adjustments by category and season—no external data feeds required.
- Updates default market discovery to reflect bias-driven and conviction-based entry rather than basic mean-reversion.
- Expands the tracked keywords list to cover more supply chain, commodity, and chokepoint scenarios.
- Adds new tunables for YES/NO entry thresholds and minimum trade size.
- Clarifies sizing logic and risk parameter behaviors in documentation.
v1.0.4
- Clarified that the automaton cron is set to null and autostart is disabled; the skill won't run on a schedule until configured via Simmer UI.
- Expanded and simplified the explanation of execution modes: runs paper-only by default, real trading only if "--live" is explicitly passed.
- Updated credentials and environment variable documentation: now only SIMMER_API_KEY (not SUPPLY_ or other prefixes) is required, and strong warnings are present about live keys.
- Risk parameters ("tunables") are now SIMMER_-prefixed, matching the Simmer UI and secure loading practices.
- Dependency section revised for clarity; direct links to PyPI and GitHub for simmer-sdk and instructions to review source before going live.
v1.0.3
- No user-facing changes in this version.
- Internal version bump only; no file changes detected.
v1.0.2
- Added a dedicated "Safety & Permissions" section to SKILL.md, clarifying default to paper trading and explicit steps for live trading.
- Documented environment variable controls for risk parameters, allowing runtime overrides without code changes.
- Specified SDK source and usage instructions for secure credential management.
- No changes to strategy logic or trading functions; updates improve clarity and safety documentation.
v1.0.1
No user-facing changes in this release.
- Version incremented from 1.0 to 1.0.1
- No modifications detected in the skill files or documentation
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Supply Chain & Logistics Trader skill for Polymarket markets.
- Trades prediction markets focused on supply chain disruptions, shipping delays, commodity prices, and logistics events.
- Includes configurable risk parameters and liquidity safeguards.
- Uses keyword-based market discovery with a default signal, plus ideas for data-driven signal extensions.
- Runs every 15 minutes, supports up to 5 concurrent positions per agent.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Supply Chain Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets focused on supply chain disruptions, port congestion, shipping delays, commodity prices, and logistics outcomes. Use whe... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 444 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Supply Chain Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-supply-chain-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Supply Chain Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Supply Chain Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Supply Chain Trader support?
Polymarket Supply Chain Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Supply Chain Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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