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Polymarket Geopolitics Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
384
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
6
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-geopolitics-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to...
Usage Guidance
This package appears internally consistent for automated Polymarket trading, but take these precautions before installing or running live: 1) Verify the simmer-sdk package/repo (the manifest points to a GitHub project) so you trust the client library that will hold your API key. 2) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY to code you trust—treat it as a high-value credential and confirm its scoped permissions (e.g., can it only trade, or can it withdraw funds?). 3) Keep autostart disabled and run initially in paper mode (default) to validate behavior. 4) Review and, if desired, lower tunables (MAX_POSITION, MAX_POSITIONS, MIN_TRADE) before enabling live trading. 5) If you need higher assurance, have a developer audit the remainder of trader.py (trade execution, error handling, logging) to confirm there is no unexpected network exfiltration or side-effects beyond Simmer/Polymarket API calls.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-geopolitics-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The polymarket-geopolitics-trader skill is a legitimate automated trading tool designed for prediction markets. It implements a transparent strategy based on geopolitical event types and regional news cycles using the simmer-sdk. The code in trader.py follows standard practices for the platform, including safety defaults (paper trading by default) and configurable risk parameters via clawhub.json. No indicators of malicious intent, data exfiltration, or unauthorized access were identified.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description (geopolitical trading) align with what the package does: it discovers markets and places trades via a Simmer/Polymarket client. Required pieces (SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk) match the trading purpose and are expected.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py keep scope to market discovery, signal computation, and trade execution. The skill defaults to simulated ('sim') venue and only runs live when invoked with --live. Instructions don't request unrelated files or credentials.
Install Mechanism
This is an instruction-only skill with a single pip dependency declared (simmer-sdk) in clawhub.json. Using a PyPI package is normal for this function; verify simmer-sdk's provenance before installing (the manifest links a GitHub repo). There are no arbitrary download URLs or archive extracts.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required (plus optional SIMMER_* tunables). The variables accessed by the code are consistent with trading configuration and are proportional to the declared purpose; no unrelated secrets are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart is false and always is not set; the skill is automaton-managed but will not run until the user enables it. Autonomous invocation is allowed by default (platform behavior) but not elevated beyond expected for a trading automaton.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-geopolitics-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-geopolitics-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.3
Wider thresholds, lower filters, add get_fast_markets + bulk scan, backward-compatible
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Enhanced default trading logic: now uses conviction-based sizing and an explicit `geopolitics_bias()` function, correcting for fear premiums and regional news timing lags without external APIs.
- Expanded explanation of structural edge: details how retail traders misprice geopolitical risk and how bias multipliers are applied by event type and timezone.
- Listed specific event-type and timezone multipliers for market correction, with examples and cap/floor logic.
- Added an explicit list of monitored keywords for more transparent market discovery.
- Updated tunables table with new and adjusted default risk parameters (trade size, thresholds, market volume, etc.) for greater clarity.
- Removed the "Edge Thesis" and reorganized documentation for improved strategy transparency and practical use.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the Geopolitics & Conflict Trader skill template for Polymarket.
- Enables trading on geopolitical prediction markets (wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, regime changes).
- Features keyword-based market discovery and probability-extreme detection by default; supports integration with advanced data sources (GDELT, ACLED, UN, ICG).
- Emphasizes safety: defaults to paper trading mode, with live trades only when explicitly enabled.
- Risk parameters and sim/live modes are fully configurable from the Simmer UI.
- Requires SIMMER_API_KEY credential and depends on the simmer-sdk Python package.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Geopolitics Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 384 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Geopolitics Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-geopolitics-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Geopolitics Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Geopolitics Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Geopolitics Trader support?
Polymarket Geopolitics Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Geopolitics Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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