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Polymarket Central Bank Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
331
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-central-bank-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on central bank decisions, interest rates, inflation prints, and Fed/ECB/Riksbank policy moves. Exploits three compoundi...
Usage Guidance
Do not install or run this skill until the inconsistent manifests are resolved. Specifically:
- Confirm whether the skill truly requires a Simmer account/API (SIMMER_API_KEY) and the simmer-sdk; the included clawhub.json and trader.py do require them even though SKILL.md and the registry summary claim none are needed.
- Inspect the simmer-sdk package (PyPI page or source repo) to confirm what endpoints it contacts and whether it stores/forwards credentials. If possible, open the SDK code or run it in a network-limited sandbox first.
- If you plan to run this skill, keep it in paper mode (no --live) until you audit behavior and provenance. Verify the --live switch is required to execute real trades and that the automaton won't enable live trading automatically.
- Ask the skill author to reconcile documentation vs. manifest: the README/SKILL.md, clawhub.json, and registry metadata should match (required envs, dependencies, and behavior). Without this, the skill's claims are unreliable.
- If you must proceed, restrict the SIMMER_API_KEY to an account with minimal privileges (test/paper trading only) and monitor outbound network activity when the skill runs.
Confidence is medium because the mismatch is clear and suspicious, but there is nothing in the code that obviously attempts to exfiltrate unrelated secrets or perform other malicious actions.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-central-bank-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a specialized trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets focused on central bank and monetary policy. The code in trader.py implements a transparent strategy based on the FOMC communication cycle and macro data calendars, defaulting to a simulation mode ('sim') to prevent accidental financial loss. No evidence of data exfiltration, unauthorized network calls, or malicious prompt injection was found; the instructions in SKILL.md are strictly focused on financial strategy and market analysis logic.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill is a Polymarket trader so needing an execution/broker API is plausible. However: (a) SKILL.md repeatedly states 'no external API required', and (b) the registry summary reported 'required env vars: none'. The included clawhub.json lists 'SIMMER_API_KEY' and a pip dependency 'simmer-sdk' and the Python file imports SimmerClient. That mismatch (claims no API vs. code requiring an API key/SDK) is a substantive incoherence.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md describes market discovery, sizing, and trade execution; trader.py implements these behaviors and defaults to paper trading unless --live is provided. The instructions do not appear to direct the agent to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate arbitrary data. The main scope concern is the SKILL.md claim 'no external API required' versus the code's use of SimmerClient (networked broker/service).
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install spec in the package registry metadata, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency 'simmer-sdk'. Installing a third-party Python SDK from PyPI is moderate-risk and expected for a trading/execution skill, but you should verify the simmer-sdk package provenance and review its code or docs before granting credentials.
Credentials
The code expects a SIMMER_API_KEY and many SIMMER_* tunables (MAX_POSITION, MIN_VOLUME, etc.) which are declared in clawhub.json. Requiring one API key for an execution/broker is proportionate to a trading bot. The concern is that the registry metadata shown to you omitted this required credential, so the manifest presented to users is inconsistent with the runnable files.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not marked always:true and does not request system-wide config or modify other skills. The automaton entrypoint will run trader.py if the automaton is enabled, but default behavior is paper trading and live trading requires an explicit --live flag.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-central-bank-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-central-bank-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Expanded description to clarify the skill now exploits three structural edges: question tractability, FOMC communication cycles, and data calendar timing.
- Documented the default, built-in signal logic: market discovery, conviction-based sizing, and a systematic "central_bank_bias()" function.
- Added detailed bias multipliers by question type, FOMC cycle phase, and data release calendar, with supporting explanations.
- No code changes in this update; SKILL.md improvements only.
- No impact on how the skill runs or its risk parameters — operational details and safeguards remain unchanged.
v1.0.0
Central Bank & Monetary Policy Trader skill, initial release:
- Scans and trades Polymarket prediction markets on central bank decisions, interest rates, inflation prints, and policy moves.
- Strategy exploits lag between CME FedWatch futures odds and Polymarket pricing after major announcements.
- Defaults to safe paper trading; live trading requires explicit activation.
- Tunable risk parameters adjustable via Simmer UI.
- Designed for easy integration with external data sources like CME FedWatch API and FRED API.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Central Bank Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on central bank decisions, interest rates, inflation prints, and Fed/ECB/Riksbank policy moves. Exploits three compoundi... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 331 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Central Bank Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-central-bank-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Central Bank Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Central Bank Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Central Bank Trader support?
Polymarket Central Bank Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Central Bank Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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