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地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model

by Figo Cheung · GitHub ↗ · v3.0.0 · MIT-0
cross-platform ✓ Security Clean
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/install dizhendongyi-climate
Description
基于地动仪模型 v3.0 的轨道尺度气候变化推演技能。提供长期气候预测（10³–10⁵年轨道尺度，基于岁差-倾角-偏心率耦合+FEBE方程）、近期气候推演（叠加RCP/SSP情景至2100年）、极端事件预警（三阶前兆指标体系）、东亚季风预测与RCP情景对比、古气候回溯（10万年冰期模拟）及冰期推迟终极测试。激活关...
README (SKILL.md)

地动仪气候模型技能 v3.0

Dizhenyi-Climate: Orbital-Scale Climate Prediction Framework

📖 概述

"地动仪"气候模型（Dizhenyi-Climate Model v3.0）是一套基于米兰科维奇轨道理论、分数阶能量平衡方程（FEBE）和多圈层非线性反馈的跨尺度气候预测框架。

模型灵感来源于东汉张衡候风地动仪的"感知-放大"物理范式——将地球轨道参数的微小变化（"地动"）通过海-冰-碳多圈层反馈机制非线性放大，预测从百年到十万年的气候演化。

核心成就：

  • ✅ 近 20 年东亚季风真实数据校准（RMSE = 0.04）
  • ✅ 10 万年古气候代理记录验证（LR04、EPICA、Vostok）
  • ✅ IPCC AR6 ECS 校准（λ_eq = 0.794 K/(W/m²)）
  • ✅ RCP8.5 vs RCP2.6 情景对比预测
  • ✅ "下一冰期能否被推迟"终极物理测试

🔬 理论框架

1. 岁差-倾角-偏心率三要素耦合机制

地球轨道参数通过非线性耦合调制太阳辐射时空分布：

要素 周期 物理意义 气候调制
岁差 (ψ) ~2.3万年 地轴自转轴周期性摆动 季节与近日点关系变化，主导低纬季风（2万年周期）
倾角 (ε) ~4.1万年 地轴与轨道平面夹角（22.1°–24.5°） 高纬冬夏温差，夏季辐射量变化
偏心率 (e) ~10万年 轨道椭圆程度（0.005–0.058） 调制岁差效应强度

耦合方程： $$F_{orb} = F_{\varepsilon} + e \cdot F_{seas} + F_{\psi}$$

当偏心率较大时，岁差效应被放大；偏心率接近圆形时，岁差效应可忽略。

2. 分数阶能量平衡方程（FEBE）

$$\Delta T(t) = \lambda_{eq} F_{total}(t) \left[ 1 - E_{h,1}\left( -\left(\frac{t}{ au}\right)^h \right) \right]$$

参数 默认值 说明
$\lambda_{eq}$ 0.794 K/(W/m²) IPCC AR6 ECS 校准
$h$（记忆指数） 0.6–0.82 圈层差异：大气0.4→冰盖0.85
$ au$（特征时间） $3 imes10^4$ yr 中等深度海洋弛豫时间
$\lambda_{sys}$ 2.5 四大反馈综合放大
$\lambda_{ice}$ 4.8 冰盖-反照率非线性反馈

3. 东亚季风（EASM）耦合方程

$$EASM(t) = \alpha \cdot F_{orb}(t) + \beta \cdot \Delta T_{CO_2}(t) + \gamma$$

参数 校准值 物理意义
$\alpha$ 1.05 轨道对季风强度的基准放大
$\beta$ 1.85 升温导致海陆热力差增大
$\gamma$ 2.10 气溶胶减排与土地利用长期影响

🧩 核心功能

功能一：长期气候预测（10³–10⁵ 年轨道尺度）

python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py long
  • 基于 La2004 轨道解计算岁差/倾角/偏心率
  • FEBE 方程求解温度异常
  • 冰盖-反照率反馈放大（λ_ice = 4.8）
  • 冰期/间冰期阶段判断

功能二：近期气候推演（叠加 RCP/SSP 至 2100 年）

python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py near rcp45 2025 2100
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py near rcp85 2025 2100
  • 混合强迫：轨道 + 温室气体
  • RCP2.6 / RCP4.5 / RCP6.0 / RCP8.5 情景
  • 与 IPCC AR6 / CMIP6 对比

功能三：极端事件预警

python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py extreme AMOC 15.0 -10
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py extreme ICE -15 -20
  • 三阶预警体系：正常 → 关注 → 警戒 → 紧急
  • AMOC / 冰盖 / 辐射强迫 / 碳循环四大类
  • 历史案例匹配

功能四：冰期-间冰期对比

python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py compare
  • 末次间冰期（Eemian）→ 当前 → 下个冰期
  • Q65 / 偏心率 / 轨道强迫 / 温度异常对比

功能五：东亚季风预测

python3 scripts/east_asian_monsoon.py 2025 2075
python3 scripts/scenario_comparison.py
  • RCP8.5 vs RCP2.6 情景对比
  • 驱动因素分解（轨道 vs 温度耦合）
  • 区域影响预测（华南 / 长江 / 华北 / 西北）

功能六：古气候回溯（100 万年）

python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py paleo_full 1000000
  • La2004 轨道解 + FEBE 全尺度模拟
  • 8 个冰期识别，周期转换验证
  • 与 LR04 深海氧同位素记录对比

📁 文件结构

dizhendongyi-climate/
├── SKILL.md                    ← 本文件（技能说明）
├── README.md                   ← 项目说明
├── requirements.txt            ← Python 依赖
├── references/
│   ├── core_theory.md          ← 核心理论（三要素耦合、FEBE、反馈）
│   ├── extreme_events.md       ← 极端事件预警体系
│   ├── orbital_data.md         ← 轨道参数公式与周期表
│   └── verification.md         ← 验证案例与精度指标
└── scripts/
    ├── orbital_forcing.py      ← La2004 轨道参数计算（v3.0）
    ├── febe_solver.py          ← FEBE 方程求解器（IPCC ECS 校准）
    ├── climate_predictor.py    ← 综合预测主程序（v3.0）
    ├── east_asian_monsoon.py   ← 东亚季风预测
    └── scenario_comparison.py  ← RCP8.5 vs RCP2.6 对比

⚙️ 安装与使用

前置条件

  • Python 3.10+
  • numpy（pip install numpy）

快速开始

cd ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/dizhendongyi-climate
pip install numpy
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py long

运行所有测试

# 轨道强迫
python3 scripts/orbital_forcing.py 100000

# FEBE 求解
python3 scripts/febe_solver.py 0.6 30000 8.4e8 30 100000

# 长期预测
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py long

# 近期推演
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py near rcp45 2025 2100

# 极端事件
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py extreme AMOC 15 -10

# 冰期对比
python3 scripts/climate_predictor.py compare

# EASM 预测
python3 scripts/east_asian_monsoon.py 2025 2075

# 情景对比
python3 scripts/scenario_comparison.py

📊 校准参数（v3.0 锁定）

现代校准（2000–2020 东亚季风数据）

参数 符号 值
轨道敏感度 α 1.05
温度耦合系数 β 1.85
基线偏移 γ 2.10
RMSE — 0.04

古气候校准（10 万年冰期数据）

参数 符号 值
冰盖反馈敏感度 λ_ice 4.8
记忆指数（深海） h 0.82
系统总放大 λ_sys 3.1x
冰期周期匹配率 — > 90%

🎯 关键发现

1. 轨道"静默期"

未来 75 年（2025–2100）Q65 变化 \x3C 1 W/m²，轨道强迫对 EASM 增强的贡献 \x3C 1.3%。

2. EASM 增强 98.6% 来自变暖

温度耦合贡献占总增量的 98.6%，轨道强迫可忽略。

3. RCP8.5 下冰期可推迟 ~2.8 万年

但无法永久消除。推迟的冰期强度仅为 LGM 的 60–70%。

4. 减排不改变趋势，但决定强度

RCP2.6 比 RCP8.5 的 EASM 指数低 4.59 个单位，极端降水风险降低 3–5 倍。

⚠️ 边界条件与免责声明

重要：本预测基于自然轨道强迫情景（假设人类活动保持工业革命前水平）。现实中大气 CO₂ 浓度已达 ~420 ppm（2024年），对应辐射强迫约 2.1–2.5 W·m⁻²，是当前自然轨道强迫（\x3C 0.5 W·m⁻²）的 4–6 倍。在未来数十年至数百年尺度上，人为温室效应主导气候趋势。轨道预测仅具有理论参考价值，不代表实际气候演变方向。

适用条件

  • 适用时间尺度：10³–10⁵ 年（轨道尺度）
  • 近期（至 2100 年）：须叠加人为强迫
  • 不适用：年代际 ENSO/NAM 等短周期现象

📜 参考文献

  1. Hays, J.D. et al. (1976). Climate changes of the last 450,000 years. Science.
  2. Laskar, J. et al. (2004). Long term evolution and chaotic diffusion of insolation. Icarus 170, 343–364.
  3. IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. AR6 WG1.
  4. Sellers, W.D. (1969). A global climatic model based on energy balance. J. Appl. Meteor.
  5. 伯勒斯, W. (2007). 21世纪的气候. 气象出版社.

🏷️ 许可证

MIT License — 欢迎研究使用和贡献。

🆔 技能标识

slug: dizhendyi-climate
version: 3.0.0
publish_date: 2026-05-05
registry: clawhub.com
Usage Guidance
This skill looks safe to install for local climate-model experiments. Before running it, be aware that it asks you to install numpy and execute local Python scripts; use a virtual environment and avoid running as an administrator/root user.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill Name: dizhendongyi-climate Version: 3.0.0 The 'dizhendongyi-climate' skill bundle is a legitimate scientific modeling framework for orbital-scale climate prediction. The Python scripts (e.g., climate_predictor.py, febe_solver.py, orbital_forcing.py) implement mathematical models based on Milankovitch cycles and energy balance equations using standard libraries like numpy. There is no evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection; the code focuses entirely on climate simulations and writes results to local temporary files (/tmp/) for data persistence. The documentation in SKILL.md and README.md is consistent with the provided code logic.
Capability Assessment
✓ Purpose & Capability
The documented purpose, reference files, and scripts all align around climate/orbital modeling, RCP scenario comparison, and monsoon prediction.
✓ Instruction Scope
The commands are presented as user-directed examples and quick-start steps, with no instructions to override user intent, force autonomous execution, or bypass approvals.
ℹ Install Mechanism
The registry says there is no install spec and no required binaries, while the skill documentation asks users to run Python and install numpy; this is purpose-aligned but under-declared and unpinned.
ℹ Credentials
The skill runs local Python scripts and some scripts write result JSON files under /tmp, which is proportionate for numerical modeling but still means local code execution and file writes occur.
✓ Persistence & Privilege
No evidence shows background services, startup hooks, privileged-path writes, credential use, broad file indexing, or long-lived persistence.
How to Use
  1. Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
  2. Run the install command in chat: /install dizhendongyi-climate
  3. After installation, invoke the skill by name or use /dizhendongyi-climate
  4. Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v3.0.0
v3.0 Final Release: 双向校准（20年真实数据+10万年古气候验证）、IPCC AR6 ECS校准、La2004轨道解、FEBE方程求解、东亚季风预测、RCP8.5 vs RCP2.6情景对比、冰期推迟终极测试
Metadata
Slug dizhendongyi-climate
Version 3.0.0
License MIT-0
All-time Installs 0
Active Installs 0
Total Versions 1
Frequently Asked Questions

What is 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model?

基于地动仪模型 v3.0 的轨道尺度气候变化推演技能。提供长期气候预测（10³–10⁵年轨道尺度，基于岁差-倾角-偏心率耦合+FEBE方程）、近期气候推演（叠加RCP/SSP情景至2100年）、极端事件预警（三阶前兆指标体系）、东亚季风预测与RCP情景对比、古气候回溯（10万年冰期模拟）及冰期推迟终极测试。激活关... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 46 downloads so far.

How do I install 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model?

Run "/install dizhendongyi-climate" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.

Is 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model free?

Yes, 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.

Which platforms does 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model support?

地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).

Who created 地动仪气候模型 Dizhenyi Climate Model?

It is built and maintained by Figo Cheung (@zxfei420); the current version is v3.0.0.

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