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在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install prediction
功能描述
Forecast uncertain outcomes with base rates, reference classes, calibration loops, and explicit scorekeeping.
安全使用建议
This skill is internally consistent and appears to do only forecasting work. Before enabling setup or allowing the agent to run its first-run actions, confirm you are okay with creating a ~/prediction/ directory and a handful of markdown files (setup uses mkdir/touch/chmod). The skill explicitly warns not to store secrets or private health/legal data — follow that guidance. If you don't want persistent local memory, decline the setup step or set integration to 'paused' / 'never_ask' in the memory template. Review the created files yourself to confirm nothing unexpected is being stored, and back them up or delete them if you stop using the skill.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: prediction
Version: 1.0.0
The prediction skill is a well-structured framework for probabilistic forecasting that manages local state in the `~/prediction/` directory. It includes comprehensive logic for question design, calibration, and scoring (Brier scores) across several markdown files (e.g., forecast-loop.md, calibration.md). The setup.md file contains standard shell commands to initialize the environment with restrictive file permissions (chmod 600/700), and the documentation explicitly warns against storing sensitive information or credentials.
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
The name/description (probabilistic forecasting, calibration, scorekeeping) match what the skill actually does: question design, BRACE loop, local logging, and scoring. It does not request unrelated credentials, binaries, or network endpoints.
Instruction Scope
Runtime instructions are limited to designing forecasts, running the BRACE loop, scoring, and storing/resolving entries in local markdown files. The only system interactions are creating and writing files under ~/prediction/ (setup.md explicitly shows mkdir, touch, chmod). The SKILL.md explicitly warns not to store secrets and asks for consent before saving sensitive items.
Install Mechanism
There is no install spec and no code to download or execute. This is instruction-only, so nothing is pulled from external URLs or registries.
Credentials
The skill requires no environment variables, no credentials, and no config paths beyond its own ~/prediction/ directory (declared in metadata). That matches a local forecasting memory store and is proportionate to the stated functionality.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill writes persistent state to ~/prediction/ (creates files and sets permissions). It does not request system-wide settings or other skills' configs, and always:false. Users should be aware that opting into setup grants the skill local disk write access in the home directory.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install prediction - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/prediction触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v1.0.0
Initial release with question design, calibration, forecast review, and post-mortem workflows for probabilistic forecasting.
元数据
常见问题
Prediction 是什么？
Forecast uncertain outcomes with base rates, reference classes, calibration loops, and explicit scorekeeping. 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 309 次。
如何安装 Prediction？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install prediction」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Prediction 是免费的吗？
是的，Prediction 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Prediction 支持哪些平台？
Prediction 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（linux, darwin, win32）。
谁开发了 Prediction？
由 Iván（@ivangdavila）开发并维护，当前版本 v1.0.0。
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