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在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-valuation-divergence
功能描述
Trade Polymarket markets based on valuation divergence. When your probability model differs from Polymarket's price by >threshold, enter using Kelly sizing....
安全使用建议
This skill appears to do what it says: it uses the Simmer SDK and your SIMMER_API_KEY to scan markets and place Kelly-sized trades. Before using it live: 1) Install and inspect the simmer-sdk dependency and run the script in dry-run mode to confirm behavior. 2) Treat SIMMER_API_KEY like a trading credential — verify its permissions (prefer read-only or restricted keys for testing). 3) Do not enable --no-safeguards unless you understand consequences. 4) If you customize get_model_probability to call external APIs, review the calls so the skill doesn’t leak sensitive data to unknown endpoints. 5) Consider disabling autonomous invocation or restricting the agent from running live trades until you’ve tested thoroughly.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-valuation-divergence
Version: 1.0.0
The skill is a legitimate automated trading bot for Polymarket that uses the `simmer-sdk` to execute trades based on price divergence from an AI model. The code in `valuation_trader.py` and `scripts/status.py` is well-structured, implements sensible risk management (Kelly sizing, position caps, and safeguards), and aligns perfectly with the documentation in `SKILL.md`. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection were found.
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
Name/description claim to trade Polymarket using a probability model; code uses a SimmerClient (simmer_sdk) and requires SIMMER_API_KEY to fetch markets, portfolio, and place trades. The requested credential is appropriate for the stated trading purpose.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and the code confine actions to scanning markets, computing edges, sizing with Kelly, and executing trades. The skill exposes hooks to call arbitrary external forecast APIs (via fetch_json) and an option (--no-safeguards) that disables internal checks. Those extension points are intentional for model customization but expand the agent's ability to fetch external data and change trading behavior; review edits to get_model_probability and avoid enabling --no-safeguards for live runs unless you understand risks.
Install Mechanism
There is no automated install spec included (no package/install step). SKILL.md metadata references pip dependency 'simmer-sdk' but the registry metadata didn't include an install step — you must ensure simmer-sdk is installed in the runtime environment. No network downloads or obscure URLs are present in the bundle itself.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is declared as required; the code uses it to instantiate a trading client, which is proportionate for a trading skill. Some optional env vars (SIMMER_VALUATION_*, TRADING_VENUE) are used but not listed in the top-level registry requires block — this is operationally acceptable but worth noting.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false and user-invocable:true (standard). The agent is allowed to invoke the skill autonomously by default (disable-model-invocation:false), which is platform normal — but because this skill can place real trades, granting autonomous invocation increases blast radius. Prefer manual invocation or strict ACLs for live trading keys.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-valuation-divergence - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-valuation-divergence触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v1.0.0
Initial release of Polymarket Valuation Divergence Trader.
- Automates Polymarket trading based on divergence between user/model probabilities and market prices.
- Supports any probability model (Simmer AI, user-defined, external APIs).
- Executes trades when edge exceeds configurable threshold, using Kelly sizing with risk caps.
- Handles market scanning, position sizing, and trade execution with safety checks.
- Includes command-line controls for dry runs, live trading, configuration, and monitoring current positions.
- Highly customizable—template structure allows integration of custom models or forecasting logic.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket Valuation Divergence 是什么？
Trade Polymarket markets based on valuation divergence. When your probability model differs from Polymarket's price by >threshold, enter using Kelly sizing.... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 143 次。
如何安装 Polymarket Valuation Divergence？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-valuation-divergence」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket Valuation Divergence 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket Valuation Divergence 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket Valuation Divergence 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket Valuation Divergence 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket Valuation Divergence？
由 AD88（@adlai88）开发并维护，当前版本 v1.0.0。
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