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Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader
作者
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
180
总下载
0
收藏
0
当前安装
4
版本数
在 OpenClaw 中安装
/install polymarket-macro-event-cascade-trader
功能描述
Trades 2nd and 3rd order effects from nearly-resolved Polymarket events. When a major geopolitical, crypto, or weather event resolves, downstream markets (oi...
安全使用建议
This skill appears internally consistent for automated trading through the Simmer platform, but take these precautions before enabling live trading:
- Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as a high-value credential: create a least-privilege key if the platform supports it and rotate/revoke after testing.
- Test extensively in paper mode (the default) and validate behavior across edge cases (time-to-resolve handling, spread/volume gating).
- Inspect the simmer-sdk package (source on PyPI / GitHub) before installing to ensure no unexpected network calls or credential exfiltration paths.
- Note the small logic mismatch: trigger detection considers markets resolving within 24 hours, while the MIN_DAYS tunable defaults to 3 and is enforced by valid_market; confirm the intended gating behavior.
- If you extend the skill with news feeds or order-book APIs (as SKILL.md suggests), expect to supply additional API keys — only add those after reviewing what the integrations do.
- Keep autostart disabled (the default) and require explicit --live to avoid accidental real trades; confirm your platform won't flip live mode automatically when managed.
If you want, I can: (a) scan simmer-sdk source for suspicious behavior, (b) list the exact env vars the code reads, or (c) point out the exact lines in trader.py that enforce paper vs live mode.
功能分析
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-macro-event-cascade-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill implements a macro-event cascade trading strategy for Polymarket using the `simmer-sdk`. It identifies nearly-resolved events (triggers) and trades lagging downstream markets (targets) based on predefined economic relationships. The code in `trader.py` includes appropriate safety features such as a paper-trading default mode, spread/volume gates, and slippage checks. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection were found.
能力标签
能力评估
Purpose & Capability
Name/description, the Simmer SDK dependency, and the required SIMMER_API_KEY all match a skill that discovers markets and places trades via a trading SDK. The requested credential is proportional to the stated capability.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market scanning, classification, lag detection, and trading; the skill defaults to paper trading and requires an explicit --live flag for real trades. SKILL.md suggests optional remixing with external news/order-flow feeds — those would require extra credentials if added, but are not present in the current bundle. Minor behavioral detail: SKILL.md mentions detecting triggers resolving within 24h, while clawhub tunable SIMMER_MIN_DAYS defaults to 3 and valid_market enforces MIN_DAYS, which could create a slight mismatch between detection and gating logic.
Install Mechanism
There is no install script writing arbitrary code to disk. The package declares a pip dependency (simmer-sdk) in clawhub.json which is a common, expected dependency for trading functionality. Installing third‑party PyPI packages is a moderate risk and should be reviewed (inspect simmer-sdk source) before granting live credentials.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required (plus optional SIMMER_... tunables read from env). The API key is explicitly described as the trading authority; asking for it is appropriate for a trading skill. No unrelated secrets or broad system paths are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart: false and always is not set, so the skill does not force itself to run automatically. automaton.managed and an entrypoint exist (trader.py), which is normal for a managed trading skill; review platform policies to confirm it won't be started live without explicit configuration.
如何使用
- 确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
- 在对话框中输入安装命令：
/install polymarket-macro-event-cascade-trader - 安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用
/polymarket-macro-event-cascade-trader触发 - 根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出
版本历史
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Initial release of Macro Event Cascade Trader skill.
- Identifies nearly-resolved major events on Polymarket and trades lagging downstream markets based on second and third-order effects.
- Cascade mapping for common macro, crypto, weather, and geopolitical events with predefined trade signals.
- Automatic detection of target markets that have not yet repriced ("cascade lag"), with conviction-based trade sizing.
- Full Simmer integration with tunable risk parameters, paper trading by default, and safety checks for live trading.
- Extensible template: supports augmentation with news feeds, cross-venue arbitrage, and custom event chains.
元数据
常见问题
Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader 是什么？
Trades 2nd and 3rd order effects from nearly-resolved Polymarket events. When a major geopolitical, crypto, or weather event resolves, downstream markets (oi... 它是一个面向 Claude Code / OpenClaw 的 AI Agent Skill 插件，目前累计下载 180 次。
如何安装 Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader？
在 OpenClaw 或 Claude Code 对话框中运行命令「/install polymarket-macro-event-cascade-trader」即可一键安装，无需额外配置。
Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader 是免费的吗？
是的，Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader 完全免费，采用 MIT-0 许可证，可自由下载、安装和使用。
Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader 支持哪些平台？
Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader 跨平台运行，可在任意部署了 OpenClaw / Claude Code 的环境中使用（cross-platform）。
谁开发了 Polymarket Macro Event Cascade Trader？
由 diagnostikon（@diagnostikon）开发并维护，当前版本 v0.0.3。
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