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Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader\r

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This is a template.\r The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis.\r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.\r \r Key advantages:\r

• Structural thesis -- supply reduction is mechanical, not speculative\r
• Time-sensitive -- longer time horizons amplify the deflation effect\r
• Verifiable -- burn rate data is on-chain and public\r \r

Signal Logic\r

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Deflation Model\r

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1. Compute deflation-adjusted price: adj = base * (1 + net_deflation * days/365 * 0.5)\r
2. Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model\r
3. Compare fair probability to market price\r
4. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge\r \r

Remix Ideas\r

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• Live burn rate: Track ultrasound.money for real-time ETH burn data\r
• Dynamic issuance: Adjust for changing validator count\r
• Gas price correlation: Higher gas = higher burn = more deflation\r
• Macro overlay: Fed rate expectations affect crypto demand\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Annual burn rate | 0.5% | ETH supply burn rate assumption |\r | Base ETH price | $3500 | Current ETH price baseline |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

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clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader\r
```\r
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Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
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## Cron Schedule\r
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Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
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## Safety & Execution Mode\r
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**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
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| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
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## Required Credentials\r
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| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
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## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
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| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.10` | Min divergence to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping (15%) |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT` | `0.5` | Annual ETH supply burn rate (%) |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE` | `3500` | Current ETH price baseline ($) |\r
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## Dependency\r
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`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
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Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r