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Kalshi Eth Gas Correlation Trader

Name: Kalshi Eth Gas Correlation Trader
Author: diagnostikon

作者 diagnostikon · GitHub ↗ · v1.0.5 · MIT-0

cross-platform ⚠ suspicious

103

总下载

当前安装

版本数

在 OpenClaw 中安装

/install kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader

功能描述

Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using on-chain gas prices as a bullish/bearish signal. High gas = strong demand = bullish for ETH. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY...

使用说明 (SKILL.md)

\r \r

Kalshi ETH Gas Correlation Trader\r

This is a template.\r The default signal uses gas price regimes as a directional indicator -- remix it with live Etherscan gas API, EIP-1559 base fee tracking, or L2 activity metrics.\r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r High on-chain gas prices indicate strong demand for Ethereum block space (DeFi activity, NFT mints, token launches). This demand correlates positively with ETH price. This skill classifies gas into regimes and applies a directional bias to ETH price market probabilities.\r \r Key advantages:\r

Leading indicator -- gas spikes often precede price moves\r
On-chain verifiable -- gas data is public and real-time\r
Regime-based -- avoids noise by classifying into discrete regimes\r \r

Signal Logic\r

Gas Regime Model\r

Classify current gas price into regime (extreme/high/normal/low/dead)\r
Map regime to directional bias (+15% to -10%)\r
Apply bias to each ETH price market probability\r
Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge\r \r

Gas Regimes\r

\r | Regime | Gas (gwei) | Bias | Interpretation |\r |--------|-----------|------|----------------|\r | Extreme | >100 | +15% | Very bullish |\r | High | >50 | +8% | Bullish |\r | Normal | >20 | 0% | Neutral |\r | Low | >10 | -5% | Bearish |\r | Dead | \x3C10 | -10% | Very bearish |\r \r

Remix Ideas\r

Live Etherscan API: Real-time gas price feed instead of estimates\r
EIP-1559 base fee: More accurate demand metric post-merge\r
L2 activity: Track Arbitrum/Optimism activity for full picture\r
DeFi TVL overlay: Combine gas with total value locked trends\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Gas high threshold | 50 gwei | Above this = high demand regime |\r | Gas low threshold | 10 gwei | Below this = dead regime |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

clawhub install kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader\r
```\r
\r
Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
\r
## Cron Schedule\r
\r
Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
\r
## Safety & Execution Mode\r
\r
**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
\r
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
\r
## Required Credentials\r
\r
| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
\r
## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
\r
| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.10` | Min divergence to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping (15%) |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_HIGH_GWEI` | `50` | Gas threshold for high-demand regime |\r
| `SIMMER_ETH_GAS_LOW_GWEI` | `10` | Gas threshold for dead regime |\r
\r
## Dependency\r
\r
`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
\r
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r

安全使用建议

This skill appears to implement the described gas-based Kalshi trading strategy, but there are two things to be careful about: (1) the skill requires a SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY — a high-value credential that allows signing on-chain transactions — even though Kalshi is a centralized market; only provide such a key if you understand and trust the 'DFlow/Solana' execution path and have audited simmer-sdk and trader.py. (2) The registry metadata is inconsistent about required env vars; treat that as a sign to inspect the code and simmer-sdk repository yourself. Recommendations: run the skill in dry-run only, review the full trader.py and simmer-sdk source, run in an isolated environment, do not put live private keys into shared agents/accounts, and prefer least-privilege keys or testnet keys until you fully audit the integration.

能力标签

cryptorequires-wallet

能力评估

⚠ Purpose & Capability

The skill's stated purpose (trade Kalshi ETH markets using on-chain gas signals) aligns with the code (imports simmer_sdk, uses SimmerClient, market discovery, trade execution). However registry metadata at the top of the report claimed 'Required env vars: none' while SKILL.md and clawhub.json both require SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY — this inconsistency is concerning. Requiring a Solana private key for Kalshi trading is unusual (Kalshi is a centralized prediction market); the SKILL.md claims live execution uses 'DFlow/Solana', which could explain the Solana key but the relationship should be clearly documented and audited before providing keys.

ℹ Instruction Scope

SKILL.md gives concrete trading instructions, defaults to dry-run, and requires live mode to execute real trades. Instructions and code focus on market discovery, gas regime classification and trading; they reference configuration via simmer_sdk.skill.load_config which may write local config. The skill also infers gas from market text if direct gas feeds are not integrated (a heuristic). No instructions in SKILL.md or visible code request unrelated system files or network exfiltration, but the skill does ask for and will use high-value credentials for live trading.

✓ Install Mechanism

There is no custom install spec; the skill is instruction- and code-based and relies on the simmer-sdk Python package (declared in SKILL.md and clawhub.json). Installing a PyPI package is expected for this functionality. No arbitrary downloads, URL shorteners, or extract/install directives were present.

⚠ Credentials

The skill requires SIMMER_API_KEY (expected) and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY (high-value). A Solana private key grants on-chain signing authority and custody of funds — this is a disproportionate and sensitive permission unless you understand why it is needed (SKILL.md claims DFlow/Solana for live execution). Additional environment variables read by the code include AUTOMATON_MAX_BET, TRADING_VENUE and many SIMMER_ETH_* tunables (declared in clawhub.json). The mismatch between the registry's 'no required env vars' and the actual required credentials is a red flag.

ℹ Persistence & Privilege

always:false (good). The skill is automaton-managed with an entrypoint (trader.py), meaning it can be run by the platform's automaton system but not forced into every agent run. The code uses simmer_sdk.skill.load_config/update_config/get_config_path which may persist config to disk under the skill's config path — this is expected for a trading skill but you should review where config and any cached credentials are stored. Autonomous invocation is allowed by default (normal), so be cautious when enabling live mode.

如何使用

确保已安装 OpenClaw（本地或 Docker 部署）
在对话框中输入安装命令：/install kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader
安装完成后，直接呼叫该 Skill 的名称或使用 /kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader 触发
根据 Skill 的参数说明提供必要输入，即可获得结构化输出

版本历史

v1.0.5

Rescan attempt

v1.0.4

Rescan attempt

v1.0.3

Rescan attempt

v1.0.2

Rescan attempt

v1.0.1

Rescan attempt

v1.0.0

Kalshi ETH Gas Correlation Trader 1.0.0 – Initial Release - Automates ETH price trading on Kalshi using on-chain Ethereum gas prices as a sentiment signal. - Gas price regimes (extreme, high, normal, low, dead) mapped to bullish/bearish trading bias. - Configurable risk parameters: position size, entry edge, exit threshold, and more. - Defaults to dry-run mode for safety; real trades require `--live` flag. - Requires `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `simmer-sdk` for operation.

元数据

Slug kalshi-eth-gas-correlation-trader

版本 1.0.5

许可证 MIT-0

累计安装 0

当前安装数 0

历史版本数 6

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