Capduck Intelligence — Decision Support Skill

When to use

• Iran: conflict, US-Iran tensions, Israel-Iran, Middle East geopolitics, oil/Hormuz, prediction markets, IRGC, IDF, ceasefire
• Trump: Truth Social posts, trade/tariff policy, Iran-war signals, energy, China, executive orders

Base URL

https://skill.capduck.com/{topic}/{feed}

Available topics: iran, trump

How to think — the decision loop

Always start from the briefing. Let the data guide your next call. Do NOT call all endpoints.

Step 1: Assess — get the big picture

curl -s "https://skill.capduck.com/iran"

The briefing contains situation assessment (tension 1-10, direction, key deltas), perspective summaries (with evidence strength), active threads (with signals and drill-down hints), and top events (impact >= 8, last 24h). Each section tells you where to look next.

Step 2: Investigate — follow the scent

• A thread mentions linked events -> /events?category=CONFLICT to read the evidence chain
• A claim has weak evidence -> /posts?source_type=osint to see if OSINT confirms
• Mainstream narrative unclear -> /news?region=us to see how US outlets frame it
• A thread links to prediction markets -> /polymarket for probability and trend
• Trump posted about Iran -> /trump?tags=iran-war to see his exact words

Step 3: Cross-reference — triangulate

• Compare official sources vs OSINT vs mainstream: /posts?source_type=state_media vs osint vs /news
• Use /notable to understand who a source is and which camp they belong to
• Use /entities?q=name to check credibility of an unfamiliar source
• Check source_count in events — 1 source = rumor, 5+ sources = confirmed
• Use /signals?ids=id1,id2 to batch-lookup raw data for thread signals

Step 4: Project — what happens next

• Look at Watch items in Active Threads: likelihood direction (rising/stable/falling), next milestones, decision makers
• Check /polymarket for market-implied probabilities and trend direction
• When polymarket diverges from briefing assessment, one of them is wrong — that's where investigation value is highest

Iran Endpoints

All paths below are relative to https://skill.capduck.com.

/{topic} — Briefing (default)

AI-generated situation briefing, updated hourly. Contains:

• Situation Assessment — tension level (1-10), direction, 24h comparison, key deltas
• Perspective Summaries — 4 viewpoints with evidence strength (strong/moderate/weak)
• Active Threads — 3-5 issue threads with linked signals, watch items, polymarket refs
• Top Events — impact >= 8 from last 24h, with source attribution

/{topic}/events — Event timeline

Structured events with impact scoring and multi-source attribution.

Each event includes: id, impact, confidence, sentiment, category, title / title_zh, summary / summary_zh, source_details[] (with display_name, entity_slug, platform, url), source_count, published_at.

/{topic}/posts — Social feed

Unified Twitter + Telegram posts with entity enrichment.

/{topic}/news — Mainstream media

Coverage from 18+ major outlets (Reuters, AP, CNN, NYT, Bloomberg, Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).

/{topic}/polymarket — Prediction markets

Current probabilities, trend direction, and historical price ranges for Iran-related prediction markets.

Each condition includes: label/label_zh, yes_price (0-1), trend arrow with % change, historical min-max range.

/{topic}/notable — Curated key entities

~90 curated key sources grouped by role:

/{topic}/entities — Full source directory

800+ tracked entities. Also accessible via alias /sources.

Trump Endpoint

/trump — Full Trump Truth Social feed, auto-tagged by topic.

Each post includes: id, author_name, author_handle, content (EN), content_zh, tags[], source_url, platform (truth-social), media_url, published_at.

Key dictionaries

Event category: CONFLICT · DIPLOMACY · POLITICS · ECONOMY · PROTESTS

Event sentiment: NEGATIVE · POSITIVE · NEUTRAL · MIXED

source_type (on posts): news_agency · state_media · osint · gov_military · journalist · think_tank · other

News region: intl · us · mideast · israel · persian · asia · russia · china · other

Post platform: twitter · telegram · truth-social (Trump only)

Trump tags: iran-war · energy · trade · china · executive-order · (auto-generated, non-exhaustive)

Entity relationships

Briefing -> thread.signals[].id -> Event ID -> /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id}
Event -> source_details[].entity_slug -> /entities or /notable
Post -> source_type (mapped from author_category)
Thread -> polymarket_ref -> /polymarket
Trump -> tags[] -> cross-reference with /events or /posts

Key investigation paths:

1. Briefing -> Thread -> Event -> Sources -> Entity: "This thread claims X" -> check linked events -> how many sources? -> who are they? -> what camp?
2. Event -> Posts/News: use /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id} to find original content linked to a specific event
3. Thread -> Polymarket: thread has polymarket_ref -> check /polymarket -> does market probability align with AI assessment?
4. Weak evidence -> Cross-reference: claim has weak evidence -> check /news for mainstream coverage -> check /posts?source_type=osint -> if neither confirms, flag as unverified
5. Trump signal -> Iran impact: /trump?tags=iran-war -> check if events corroborate -> /events?category=DIPLOMACY -> assess real impact vs rhetoric

Usage scenarios

"What's the latest on Iran?" — Call /iran -> summarize situation assessment + top 2-3 threads. Keep it under 300 words. Lead with tension level and direction.

"What did Trump just say about Iran?" — Call /trump?tags=iran-war&limit=5 -> then cross-check /events?category=DIPLOMACY&hours=6 to see if rhetoric matches real developments.

"Is this source credible?" — Call /notable first (fast, curated). If not found, fall back to /entities?q=name. Report which camp they belong to and their category.

"What are the markets saying?" — Call /polymarket -> compare market-implied probability with briefing's thread assessment. Flag divergences explicitly.

"Deep dive on a specific event" — Get event ID from briefing or /events -> call /posts?event={id} and /news?event={id} -> triangulate source count and source types.

Output guidelines

• Lead with judgment, then evidence. Don't dump raw data — synthesize first, cite after.
• Mark confidence. Use "confirmed (N sources)" / "reported but unverified (single source)" / "rumor" based on source_count.
• Flag weak evidence. If a claim has only 1 source or comes from entertainment/social accounts, say so explicitly.
• Keep it concise. Default to 200-400 words unless the user asks for detail.
• Bilingual when helpful. Key terms and quotes can include both English and Chinese where the data provides translations.
• Never present AI analysis as fact. The briefing is AI-generated — frame it as "the briefing assesses..." not "the situation is...".

Key principle

The briefing is the map. The other endpoints are the territory. Don't dump all data on the user — use the briefing to identify what matters, investigate only what's relevant, and synthesize a judgment.

Notes

• Data from iranmonitor.org (800+ sources), Polymarket CLOB API, Truth Social
• AI analysis hourly, data feeds every 5 minutes
• All responses are Markdown with Chinese translations where available
• 48-hour rolling data window with deduplication by event/post ID
• Trump feed: auto-tagged by topic, bilingual (EN + ZH)