Geopolitics Expert

Analyzes armed conflicts through integrated frameworks to assess war duration, economic impact, and termination scenarios.

Usage

geopolitics-expert \x3Cnews_url>

The skill fetches the news URL and produces a structured analysis with five outputs.

Workflow

Step 1: Fetch and Parse News Content

Use web_fetch to extract article content from the provided URL.

Step 2: Apply Analytical Frameworks

Analyze the conflict using these integrated frameworks (stored in references/):

1. Strategic Gravity — forever war vs short war indicators
2. Modern Doctrines — US intervention triggers and target selection
3. Five Pathways — conflict termination scenarios
4. Perpetual Quagmire — forever war risk factors
5. IRGCistan — post-theocratic military state dynamics
6. Hormuz Siege — chokepoint weaponization patterns
7. Reopening Blueprints — strategic options for de-escalation

Step 3: Generate Structured Output

Produce analysis in this exact format:

## 1. Conclusion
[Core assessment of the conflict situation]

## 2. Economic/Commodity Impact
[Effects on oil, gas, fertilizers, supply chains, inflation]

## 3. Commodity Trading Odds
[Assessment of trading opportunities: long/short positions, risk factors]

## 4. War Duration Categorization
- **Short-term war probability**: X%
- **Long-term/forever war probability**: Y%
- **Key indicators**: [list specific factors from Strategic Gravity framework]

## 5. Termination Scenarios
[Summary of which pathways could end this conflict, ranked by likelihood]

Framework Reference

Read references/frameworks.md for detailed analytical models when complex conflicts require deeper assessment.

Output Guidelines

• Be decisive — provide clear probabilities, not vague ranges
• Anchor to frameworks — cite specific indicators from the loaded models
• Economic focus — always tie back to commodity impacts (oil, gas, fertilizer, shipping)
• Scenario-ranked — order termination scenarios by probability, not alphabetically