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Prediction Market Arbitrage
by
Hagen Hoferichter
· GitHub ↗
· v1.0.0
730
Downloads
2
Stars
2
Active Installs
1
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install prediction-market-arbitrage
Description
Orchestrates monitoring, market odds, and execution proxy tools to detect news-market price gaps and emit arbitrage alerts with optional trade plans.
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to do what it says: orchestrate monitoring, market lookups, and optional execution guidance. Before installing, consider these steps: (1) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY if you explicitly want the agent to be able to produce execution plans or run dry-run/live trades; otherwise keep it unset and use alert-only mode. (2) Store SIMMER_API_KEY in a secrets manager or environment that is not broadly accessible, and rotate it regularly. (3) Audit the upstream skills (topic-monitor, polymarket-odds, simmer-weather) that this meta-skill orchestrates — the meta-skill delegates behavior to them. (4) Run the workflow in dry-run mode first and verify that alerts and decision logic behave as expected. (5) Limit agent autonomy and review logs before enabling any live execution path. If you want a stricter review, provide the upstream skills' code or the Simmer SDK docs so I can check exactly how the API key is used and whether any hidden network endpoints are contacted.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: prediction-market-arbitrage
Version: 1.0.0
The skill bundle is classified as benign. It serves as a meta-skill to orchestrate existing OpenClaw skills (`topic-monitor`, `polymarket-odds`, `simmer-weather`) for a prediction market arbitrage workflow. While it involves potentially sensitive actions like trade execution, the `SKILL.md` explicitly includes strong guardrails for the AI agent, such as requiring explicit user confirmation before any live trading action, mandating dry-runs, and rejecting stale data. There is no evidence of intentional harmful behavior, data exfiltration, backdoors, or prompt injection designed to subvert the agent's intended function or bypass security measures. The commands provided are standard for managing and interacting with OpenClaw skills.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name and description match the actions in SKILL.md: it orchestrates topic-monitor, polymarket-odds, and simmer-weather for arbitrage alerting. Requiring python3/node/npx is expected because the upstream skills are Python/Node and installation uses npx. One minor mismatch: SIMMER_API_KEY is declared as required even though the workflow explicitly supports an 'alert-only' execution_mode; making the API key mandatory is not strictly necessary for alert-only operation.
Instruction Scope
The SKILL.md confines runtime actions to invoking the three upstream skills, normalizing values, applying hard decision rules, and emitting alerts or execution plans. It does not instruct the agent to read unrelated system files, other environment variables, or external endpoints beyond the described ClawHub skills and Simmer endpoints. It explicitly warns not to auto-trade unless the user asks.
Install Mechanism
This is instruction-only (no install spec or code blobs). The recommended install uses npx clawhub@latest to install upstream skills — a reasonable, traceable approach. No downloads from arbitrary URLs or archive extractions are present in the skill itself.
Credentials
Only one env var is requested: SIMMER_API_KEY. That is expected for the simmer-weather execution proxy, but declaring it as required (rather than optional) is disproportionate if users will run in alert-only mode. SIMMER_API_KEY is a trading credential; supplying it enables live trading via the cited execution proxy if downstream components or operators invoke execution. Users should treat this key as sensitive, store it in a secrets manager, and avoid providing it unless they intend to permit trade execution.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill does not request always:true, does not modify other skills' configs, and does not demand persistent system-wide privileges. user-invocable is true and autonomous invocation is allowed (disable-model-invocation:false) — this is platform-default and acceptable here, but users should be mindful that an agent with this skill could be asked to perform repeated monitoring and, if credentials are supplied, to prepare execution plans.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install prediction-market-arbitrage - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/prediction-market-arbitrage - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.0.0
prediction-market-arbitrage 1.0.0
- Initial release: Enables real-time arbitrage detection between breaking news and Polymarket prices for CEO/company event markets.
- Orchestrates topic-monitor, polymarket-odds, and simmer-weather skills to compare news confidence with market probabilities.
- Supports automated alert generation and optional live trade execution via Simmer, with robust guardrails for skill path resolution and user confirmation.
- Requires explicit user confirmation for live trades and provides clear, machine-readable trade recommendations and signal payloads.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Prediction Market Arbitrage?
Orchestrates monitoring, market odds, and execution proxy tools to detect news-market price gaps and emit arbitrage alerts with optional trade plans. It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 730 downloads so far.
How do I install Prediction Market Arbitrage?
Run "/install prediction-market-arbitrage" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Prediction Market Arbitrage free?
Yes, Prediction Market Arbitrage is completely free (open-source). You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Prediction Market Arbitrage support?
Prediction Market Arbitrage is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Prediction Market Arbitrage?
It is built and maintained by Hagen Hoferichter (@h4gen); the current version is v1.0.0.
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