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kingmadellc

Prediction Market Arbiter

by kingmadellc · GitHub ↗ · v1.1.5 · MIT-0
cross-platform ⚠ suspicious
340
Downloads
0
Stars
1
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install prediction-market-arbiter
Description
Cross-platform divergence scanner comparing Kalshi and Polymarket prices on identical events. Fuzzy title matching across 1000+ markets per run, configurable...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to implement a legitimate Kalshi↔Polymarket divergence scanner, but there are metadata/instruction mismatches you should address before use: - The SKILL.md and script read a per-user config (~/.openclaw/config.yaml) and a Kalshi private key PEM file, but the registry metadata does not declare any required config paths or credentials. Treat the private_key_file as highly sensitive: do not point it at unrelated keys (SSH, cloud credentials, etc.). - Verify where the script will write cache/JSON files (current working dir or a logged path) and run it in an isolated environment (VM/container) if you are unsure. - Inspect the kalshi-python package (version pinned in requirements.txt) yourself, and install dependencies in a virtualenv rather than globally. - Consider adding the Kalshi credentials via a dedicated Kalshi key (not reuse of other private keys) and confirm the key format before supplying the path. - Because the skill metadata omits the config file requirement, ask the publisher (or update metadata locally) to declare the required config path and the sensitive file access so you can assess it fully. If you cannot verify these items, treat the skill as untrusted and avoid supplying high-value secrets or system-wide keys.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill Name: prediction-market-arbiter Version: 1.1.5 The skill bundle is a legitimate tool for scanning price divergences between Kalshi and Polymarket. The code in `scripts/arbiter.py` correctly implements the described fuzzy matching logic and interacts only with official API endpoints (kalshi.com and polymarket.com). While it handles sensitive Kalshi API credentials, it does so locally as required for authentication without any signs of exfiltration or unauthorized execution.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The code and SKILL.md match the described purpose: fetching Kalshi and Polymarket markets, fuzzy-matching titles, and reporting divergences. Requesting a Kalshi API key + private PEM file is proportionate to accessing the Kalshi API. However, the registry metadata lists no required config paths or required env vars while the SKILL.md and code expect a user config file (~/.openclaw/config.yaml) and a private key file — this metadata omission is an inconsistency.
Instruction Scope
The SKILL.md and scripts instruct the agent to read a user config file (default: ~/.openclaw/config.yaml) and to read a private key PEM file from a path provided in that config. Those file reads are not declared in the registry metadata. The instructions also cache results to JSON (writing to disk) and make network calls to Kalshi and Polymarket. There is no instruction to validate that the provided private key file is indeed a Kalshi key or to avoid pointing it at unrelated sensitive files (e.g., SSH keys).
Install Mechanism
There is no automated install spec (no brew/npm/download), which reduces install-time risk. The repo includes requirements.txt and requests the user to pip-install packages (kalshi-python, requests, pyyaml) in SKILL.md. That is a common, moderate-risk pattern; no unusual or remote download URLs are present.
Credentials
Access to Kalshi credentials (api_key_id + private_key_file) is required by the SKILL.md and code, which is reasonable for this purpose — but the skill metadata declares no required env vars or config paths. The private_key_file is a sensitive credential stored as a file path: the skill will read any file the user points it to, so a malicious or accidental pointer could expose other secrets. The number and type of secrets requested are not excessive for the stated purpose, but they are not declared in the metadata and there is no guidance to prevent misuse of arbitrary key files.
Persistence & Privilege
always is false (good). The skill reads a per-user config (~/.openclaw/config.yaml) and caches results to JSON; it does not request to persist as always-enabled or to modify other skills. The ability to run autonomously (disable-model-invocation=false) is platform-default; combined with the undeclared config access this increases the need for caution but is not itself a definitive red flag.
How to Use
  1. Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
  2. Run the install command in chat: /install prediction-market-arbiter
  3. After installation, invoke the skill by name or use /prediction-market-arbiter
  4. Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.1.5
migrate to Kalshi SDK v3 — fix constructor crash
v1.1.0
v1.1.0: unified stack release
v1.0.1
fix: cache schema standardized, prices as 0-1 floats
v1.0.0
Prediction Market Arbiter 1.0.0 — Initial release - Cross-platform divergence scanner comparing Kalshi and Polymarket prices on matching event markets - Fuzzy Jaccard-based title matching across 1000+ markets for robust event pairing - Configurable thresholds for price divergence, minimum volume, and match quality - Automatic detection and alerting of arbitrage opportunities and market mispricings - Zero API cost; results cached for programmatic access - Integrates with the OpenClaw Prediction Market Trading Stack
Metadata
Slug prediction-market-arbiter
Version 1.1.5
License MIT-0
All-time Installs 1
Active Installs 1
Total Versions 4
Frequently Asked Questions

What is Prediction Market Arbiter?

Cross-platform divergence scanner comparing Kalshi and Polymarket prices on identical events. Fuzzy title matching across 1000+ markets per run, configurable... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 340 downloads so far.

How do I install Prediction Market Arbiter?

Run "/install prediction-market-arbiter" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.

Is Prediction Market Arbiter free?

Yes, Prediction Market Arbiter is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.

Which platforms does Prediction Market Arbiter support?

Prediction Market Arbiter is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).

Who created Prediction Market Arbiter?

It is built and maintained by kingmadellc (@kingmadellc); the current version is v1.1.5.

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