Manifold Markets

Use this skill to read from Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect public user info) and to place trades/comments with explicit confirmation.

Write actions require MANIFOLD_API_KEY (in the environment or configured via OpenClaw skill entries).

Base URL: https://api.manifold.markets/v0

Docs: https://docs.manifold.markets/api

Read tasks

Search markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5"

Tip: replace spaces with + (or URL-encode). If you have jq, format results:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, createdTime, creatorUsername}'

List newest markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10"

With jq:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, closeTime}'

Get market details (by ID)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

Binary markets usually expose probability (0..1). Other market types may not have a single probability field.

Get market details (by slug)

The slug is the portion of the Manifold URL after the username (e.g. .../Alice/my-market-slug → my-market-slug).

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/MARKET_SLUG"

Inspect a user (by username)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"

List bets for a user

If you have jq:

USER_ID="$(curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME" | jq -r '.id')"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=$USER_ID&limit=50"

Without jq, fetch the user JSON and read the id field, then use it:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=USER_ID&limit=50"

Write safety rules

• Never place a bet, sell shares, or post a comment unless the user explicitly confirms (e.g. “yes, place it”, “confirm”, “do it”).
• Always fetch the market first and restate: market question, market id/slug, action (bet/sell/comment), side/answer, amount/shares, and any limits.
• If the user is not explicit about amount/side, stop and ask.

Write tasks

Authentication

• Uses MANIFOLD_API_KEY in header: Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY
• Set MANIFOLD_API_KEY (or skills.manifold.apiKey in ~/.openclaw/openclaw.json).

Place a bet (binary market)

1. Fetch the market and confirm it’s the right one:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

2. Preview the exact payload you intend to send (do not run the POST until user confirms):

cat \x3C\x3C'JSON'
{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}
JSON

3. After explicit confirmation, place the bet:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bet" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}'

Notes:

• amount is in Mana (integer).
• outcome is YES or NO for binary markets.
• For non-binary markets, consult the Manifold API docs for the correct payload.

Sell shares

Preview first (do not run until user confirms).

Sell all shares for an outcome (omit shares to sell all):

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES"}'

Sell a specific number of shares:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES","shares":10}'

Post a comment

Comments made through the API can incur a fee (see Manifold API docs). Always confirm text + target market.

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comment" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"contractId":"MARKET_ID","content":"Your comment here."}'

Notes

• Rate limits apply (see Manifold API docs).
• Private/unlisted markets may not be accessible via the public API depending on current platform behavior.