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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-negrisk-arb
Description
Scan multi-outcome Polymarket markets for mathematical arbitrage. When the sum of all outcome prices falls below $1.00, buy all sides simultaneously via batc...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to implement what it claims (NegRisk arbitrage) and uses Simmer's API as expected, but take these precautions before installing:
- Fix the metadata mismatch: the registry summary claimed no required env vars, but the manifest and code require SIMMER_API_KEY. Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as sensitive — it lets the skill place trades.
- Do not enable automated/cron execution with a live API key until you've tested in simulation. The manifest's automaton entrypoint runs '--live --quiet' by default; switch the venue to 'sim' (paper trading) or remove/disable the cron before first run.
- Review and limit the API key's permissions and rotate it after testing. Use a key scoped to only the required account and, if possible, a paper-trading key.
- Inspect and/or run the code in an isolated environment first to confirm behavior (ledger/config files are created next to the script). Confirm daily_budget, max_position_usd and other tunables match your risk tolerance.
- If you expect the platform metadata to show required env vars, ask the publisher/registry maintainer to correct it; metadata mismatches reduce trust and may cause accidental misconfiguration.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-negrisk-arb
Version: 1.0.2
The skill implements a mathematical arbitrage strategy for Polymarket NegRisk markets, scanning for multi-outcome events where price sums deviate from $1.00. The code in negrisk_arb.py and scripts/status.py uses the simmer-sdk and direct HTTPS requests to api.simmer.markets to execute batch trades and monitor portfolio status. It includes appropriate safeguards such as daily budget limits, position caps, and fee filters, with no evidence of malicious intent, data exfiltration, or prompt injection.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's name/description (NegRisk arbitrage) aligns with the code and SKILL.md: it discovers multi-outcome markets and posts batch trades to Simmer's API. The script uses simmer-sdk and makes authenticated requests to https://api.simmer.markets, which is expected for this purpose. However, the top-level registry summary provided earlier claims 'Required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and the SKILL.md require SIMMER_API_KEY — an inconsistency that should be resolved before installation.
Instruction Scope
Runtime instructions and the Python code stick to the trading task: fetching markets, grouping, computing sums, validating fees/slippage, building batch trades, and posting them. The skill reads/writes local config (negrisk_config.json) and ledger (negrisk_ledger.json) files, and reads multiple SIMMER_*/TRADING_VENUE env vars — all within scope for a trading bot. No unexplained external endpoints or data-exfiltration behavior appear in the reviewed files beyond the Simmer API.
Install Mechanism
This is instruction-only (no platform install spec). It requires pip-installing simmer-sdk per SKILL.md. That's a standard, proportional dependency for the declared functionality and is lower-risk than arbitrary downloads.
Credentials
The code and manifest require a SIMMER_API_KEY and several SIMMER_* tunables; that is appropriate for a trading skill. The concern is the discrepancy between the initial 'Required env vars: none' registry metadata and the actual manifest and code which require SIMMER_API_KEY. Also, the skill will read env vars for configuration and will use SIMMER_API_KEY to sign trade requests — granting that key allows the skill to place trades, so the user must ensure the key's permissions and rotation policy are appropriate.
Persistence & Privilege
clawhub.json contains a cron schedule and an 'automaton.managed: true' entrypoint that runs 'negrisk_arb.py --live --quiet'. That means the platform could automatically run the skill on a schedule and, as configured, attempt live trades. While autonomous invocation is normal for skills, the combination of an automated cron entrypoint set to run live trades is a meaningful operational risk: if enabled without reviewing venue (paper vs live), API key scope, and limits, the skill can make real trades repeatedly. The skill does not set always:true, but the managed/cron + live entrypoint should be reviewed carefully before enabling.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-negrisk-arb - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-negrisk-arb - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v1.0.2
polymarket-negrisk-arb v1.0.2
- Version bump to 1.0.2; no code or documentation changes detected.
- No functional or descriptive changes from the previous release.
v1.0.1
No user-facing changes; only the version number was updated.
- Version bumped from 1.0.0 to 1.0.1 with no content or functional changes.
v1.0.0
Initial release of Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage Trader.
- Scans multi-outcome Polymarket markets for mathematical arbitrage where the sum of all outcome prices falls below $1.00.
- Executes risk-free arbitrage by buying all possible outcomes simultaneously via batch trade to lock in profit.
- Includes detailed configuration options for profit thresholds, position sizing, slippage, liquidity, and fee filtering.
- Provides comprehensive CLI flags and live/dry-run modes for ease of use and automation.
- Implements multiple safeguards (fee check, slippage, position checks, daily budget, outcome count, liquidity filter).
- Tracks all arbitrage trades and results for performance analytics.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage?
Scan multi-outcome Polymarket markets for mathematical arbitrage. When the sum of all outcome prices falls below $1.00, buy all sides simultaneously via batc... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 312 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage?
Run "/install polymarket-negrisk-arb" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage free?
Yes, Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage support?
Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage?
It is built and maintained by r2crypto (@r2crypto); the current version is v1.0.2.
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