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Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
192
Downloads
0
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0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-bundle-overwatch-bo3-trader
Description
Trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner markets and individual game winner markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 winner) must be mathematicall...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to do exactly what it says: it discovers Overwatch BO3 and game markets via the Simmer client, computes implied probabilities, and paper-trades by default. Before installing:
- Be sure you trust the simmer-sdk package (review its source or the package owner) because the skill installs it via pip and it will hold your SIMMER_API_KEY.
- Treat SIMMER_API_KEY as a high-value trading credential; only provide it if you intend to allow this skill to place trades. By default the script uses a simulated venue; live trading requires an explicit --live flag.
- Note the small metadata mismatch in the platform summary (it showed no required env vars/install), while the package files do require SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk — this looks like a packaging/metadata inconsistency rather than malicious behavior, but confirm the platform will prompt you for the required credential.
- If you plan to run live, test thoroughly in paper mode and review the risk/tunable parameters (min trade, max position, thresholds). If you want extra assurance, inspect the simmer-sdk source or run the script in a restricted environment first.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-bundle-overwatch-bo3-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill bundle implements a legitimate mathematical arbitrage strategy for Overwatch betting markets on Polymarket. The code in trader.py calculates implied series win probabilities from individual game markets and executes trades based on configurable thresholds, defaulting to a safe paper-trading mode. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection was found; the logic is consistent with the stated purpose of structural arbitrage.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill claims to detect and trade BO3 vs individual-game inconsistencies on Polymarket and the code + SKILL.md implement exactly that. Required items (SIMMER_API_KEY, simmer-sdk) are appropriate for a trading client. Minor inconsistency: the registry summary at the top of the evaluation lists no required env vars/install spec, while clawhub.json and SKILL.md both declare SIMMER_API_KEY and pip dependency; this is likely a metadata sync issue rather than malicious.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py confine actions to discovering markets via the Simmer client, computing implied probabilities, running heuristic gates, and placing simulated or live trades. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated files, harvest system credentials, or contact unexpected endpoints outside the Simmer/Polymarket ecosystem.
Install Mechanism
There is no high-risk download or arbitrary remote installer. clawhub.json declares a pip dependency on 'simmer-sdk' (public package) which is a typical moderate-risk install step. Confirming the origin and integrity of the simmer-sdk package (review its source/release) is recommended, but this is proportionate to the stated functionality.
Credentials
The only required secret is SIMMER_API_KEY (declared in both SKILL.md and clawhub.json) which matches the bot's need to authenticate to a trading service. The code reads tunable SIMMER_* env vars that are declared in clawhub.json. No unrelated secrets or system config paths are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill does not demand always:true, autostart is false, and the code defaults to paper trading unless explicitly run with --live. It does not attempt to modify other skills or system-wide agent settings. Autonomous invocation (model invocation enabled) is the platform default and not an additional red flag here.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-bundle-overwatch-bo3-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-bundle-overwatch-bo3-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
Initial release: Detects and trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner and individual game winner markets on Polymarket.
- Identifies pricing inconsistencies using the mathematical relationship between BO3 and individual game probabilities.
- Groups and parses Overwatch markets by match to compute implied BO3 probabilities.
- Trades automatically when odds diverge by more than a configurable threshold (default 5% gap).
- Adjustable risk and market filters via Simmer UI tunables; defaults to paper trading.
- Designed for easy extension with custom signal logic, live data, and Overwatch stat integrations.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader?
Trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner markets and individual game winner markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 winner) must be mathematicall... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 192 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-bundle-overwatch-bo3-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader support?
Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Bundle Overwatch Bo3 Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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