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Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
213
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
4
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-24h-weather-distribution-trader
Description
Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detectin...
Usage Guidance
This skill's code and instructions match its stated trading purpose and it only needs one secret (SIMMER_API_KEY). However: 1) The registry metadata is inconsistent (it claims no required env vars / no install spec while clawhub.json and SKILL.md require SIMMER_API_KEY and list a pip dependency). Treat that as sloppy packaging — confirm the platform will require the API key prompt and that the pip dependency will be installed from PyPI. 2) Before providing SIMMER_API_KEY, review the simmer-sdk source (or vendor) and the SimmerClient usage to ensure it does only expected API calls; run the skill in paper mode (default) to validate behavior. 3) Keep autostart disabled and do not enable live trading until you’re comfortable; rotate the API key if you test with a real key. 4) If you need higher assurance, ask the author/owner for a provenance link or sign-off for the simmer-sdk package (commit/tag) and a full audit of the trader.py file (complete untruncated source).
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-24h-weather-distribution-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill bundle implements a legitimate mathematical arbitrage strategy for Polymarket weather temperature markets. The code in `trader.py` uses the `simmer-sdk` to identify and trade probability distribution inconsistencies (sum and monotonicity violations) with clear safety defaults, such as a paper-trading mode and configurable risk tunables. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill's code and SKILL.md align with the stated purpose: it reconstructs temperature-bin distributions and uses the Simmer SDK to paper- or live-trade Polymarket markets. Requesting a Simmer trading API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) and the simmer-sdk dependency is coherent with trading functionality. However, the top-level registry summary claimed 'Required env vars: none' while both clawhub.json and SKILL.md require SIMMER_API_KEY — a metadata mismatch that should be corrected.
Instruction Scope
Runtime instructions and the Python code stick to market discovery, parsing, detection of sum/monotonicity violations, and trade execution via the SimmerClient. The SKILL.md explicitly warns that the default is paper trading and that live trading requires a --live flag. The instructions do not ask the agent to read unrelated system files or secrets beyond the declared SIMMER_* tunables.
Install Mechanism
There is no high-risk download host or obfuscated installer. The dependency is a PyPI package ('simmer-sdk') and the SKILL.md points to the project's GitHub and PyPI. However, the registry summary indicated 'No install spec — instruction-only', while clawhub.json declares a pip dependency; that inconsistency should be clarified. Installing a third-party SDK from PyPI is reasonable for this skill but you should review that package's source before granting credentials.
Credentials
Functionality requires one high-value secret: SIMMER_API_KEY, which is appropriate for a trading skill. Tunables (SIMMER_MAX_POSITION, thresholds, etc.) are non-sensitive and declared in clawhub.json. The inconsistency between registry metadata (which incorrectly lists no required envs) and the files that require SIMMER_API_KEY is the main concern; ensure the platform will surface the API-key requirement before enabling the skill.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill does not request 'always: true' and autostart is false; autonomous invocation is allowed (default) but that is normal for skills. The automaton entrypoint is trader.py but cron/autostart are disabled by default. No evidence that the skill attempts to modify other skills or system-wide settings.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-24h-weather-distribution-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-24h-weather-distribution-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.1
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.0
- Initial release of 24h Weather Distribution Trader.
- Detects and trades on mispricings in Polymarket daily weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing implied probability distributions.
- Identifies arbitrage opportunities via sum violations (bins not totaling ~100%) and cumulative monotonicity breaks across 14 major cities.
- Supports paper trading by default, with live trading available using the --live flag.
- Includes configurable safety and risk parameters for trade sizing, thresholds, and market selection.
- Requires SIMMER_API_KEY to enable trading actions.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader?
Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detectin... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 213 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-24h-weather-distribution-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader support?
Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket 24h Weather Distribution Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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