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Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-sports-live
Description
Exploits price lag between ESPN real-time scores and Polymarket sports markets. Uses Gaussian win-probability models for NBA/NFL/NHL and Poisson for soccer t...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears coherent for live-score arbitrage. Before installing: (1) Confirm simmer-sdk is a trusted package/source and review its permissions/behavior; (2) Use TRADING_VENUE=sim and a SIMMER_API_KEY scoped to paper trading while testing; (3) Keep the default dry-run initially and verify logged signals before enabling live trading; (4) Ensure the managed cron entry won't invoke the script with --live automatically; (5) Limit SIMMER_API_KEY permissions where possible and set sensible SPORTS_TRADE_SIZE and divergence thresholds to limit financial risk.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-sports-live
Version: 2.0.5
The skill is a legitimate sports arbitrage bot designed to trade on Polymarket based on real-time ESPN scores. It uses the 'simmer-sdk' to interact with markets and 'requests' to fetch live data from official ESPN API endpoints (site.api.espn.com). The code implements standard statistical models (Gaussian and Poisson) and includes safety features such as slippage checks and market context validation. No evidence of data exfiltration, credential theft, or malicious execution was found in sports_live.py or the accompanying documentation.
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description claim live-score arbitrage vs Polymarket; the package requires only a Simmer API key and uses requests + simmer-sdk to fetch ESPN data, compute probabilities, find markets, and optionally trade. All requested dependencies and env vars (SIMMER_API_KEY, optional TRADING_VENUE and thresholds) are proportionate to that purpose.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and sports_live.py stay within scope: fetching ESPN public endpoints, computing probabilities, using SimmerClient.find_markets/get_market_context/trade, and logging signals in dry-run. The instructions do not read other system secrets or arbitrary files, nor do they exfiltrate data to unexpected endpoints.
Install Mechanism
No custom download/install script; pip packages (simmer-sdk, requests) are declared. This is expected for a Python SDK-based trading bot, but the simmer-sdk package is third-party so users should verify its provenance before supplying real API keys.
Credentials
Only SIMMER_API_KEY is required (declared in metadata). Optional TRADING_VENUE and trade-threshold/size env vars are justified. No wallet private keys or unrelated credentials are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is a managed automaton scheduled every 2 minutes (cron). Dry-run is the default and live trading requires passing --live, but the automaton configuration means the skill will run periodically (in dry-run mode unless configured otherwise). Users should confirm the scheduler won't run with --live automatically and understand that providing a valid SIMMER_API_KEY grants the skill capability to place trades via the Simmer API.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-sports-live - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-sports-live - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v2.0.5
Fix requires.env: only list mandatory vars, optional vars documented in SKILL.md only
v2.0.4
Declare all env vars in manifest, sync version, add scheduling/security docs
v2.0.3
Fix SKILL.md/clawhub.json consistency: match version, declare TRADING_VENUE, correct managed/scheduling docs
v2.0.2
Fix manifest/code consistency: sync versions, declare all env vars, set managed:true, type:automaton
v2.0.1
Fix Market dataclass access, find_markets API, venue default to sim
v2.0.0
polymarket-sports-live v2.0.0
- Major version update with internal code changes.
- No user-facing updates in documentation or functionality.
- Skill usage, configuration, and security practices remain unchanged.
v1.5.0
Version 1.5.0 introduces improved security and execution safeguards.
- Now only requires the `SIMMER_API_KEY` environment variable; no wallet private keys are used or read.
- All live trades are executed exclusively via `SimmerClient.trade()`; no direct CLOB or wallet interaction.
- Added a detailed breakdown of the trade execution path and the skill's credential handling in the documentation.
- The skill remains dry-run by default; users must explicitly pass `--live` to trade.
- Updated documentation for clarity and safety, noting that `automaton.managed` is `false` (no auto-execution).
v1.4.0
Fix metadata: document SIMMER_API_KEY, pip deps, trading warnings in SKILL.md
v1.3.0
Fix: removed managed:true and --live args from automaton. Dry-run by default, user controls execution.
v1.2.0
Fixed: use client.trade() instead of create_order(), yes/no sides, context check, singleton pattern
v1.1.0
Added singleton client pattern with venue=polymarket, context check before trading, fixed TRADE_SOURCE format
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Live Sports Score Arbitrage skill.
- Calculates fair odds using Gaussian/Poisson models from ESPN real-time scores for NBA, NFL, NHL, and soccer.
- Identifies and trades on >10% price divergence between model probability and Polymarket sports markets, capitalizing on price lag.
- Configurable to run every 2 minutes; supports both simulation (dry-run) and live trading modes.
- Template is easily remixed to support additional sports, different models, or new data sources.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Sports Live?
Exploits price lag between ESPN real-time scores and Polymarket sports markets. Uses Gaussian win-probability models for NBA/NFL/NHL and Poisson for soccer t... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 210 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Sports Live?
Run "/install polymarket-sports-live" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Sports Live free?
Yes, Polymarket Sports Live is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Sports Live support?
Polymarket Sports Live is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Sports Live?
It is built and maintained by Mibayy (@mibayy); the current version is v2.0.5.
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