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Polymarket Real Estate Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
328
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
6
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-real-estate-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property market milesto...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears internally consistent for a Simmer/Polymarket trading bot and defaults to paper trading. Before using it live: (1) keep SIMMER_API_KEY secret and only grant it the minimum permissions needed; (2) verify the simmer-sdk package (PyPI page and GitHub repo) to ensure you trust that dependency; (3) review the full trader.py yourself (or have a reviewer) so you're comfortable with any network calls the SDK makes; (4) do not run with --live until you understand position sizing and risk tunables; (5) confirm autostart remains disabled in your deployment to avoid accidental live trades. Note the small documentation mismatch: SKILL.md claims "no external API" for the edge, but the runtime relies on the Simmer service (SIMMER_API_KEY).
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-real-estate-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed for Polymarket prediction markets related to real estate and Federal Reserve decisions. It utilizes the 'simmer-sdk' for market interaction and implements a transparent strategy based on FOMC calendars and market volatility. Security-wise, it follows best practices by defaulting to a paper-trading mode ('sim') and requiring an explicit '--live' flag for real financial transactions. No indicators of data exfiltration, malicious code execution, or prompt injection were found in trader.py or SKILL.md.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
Name/description match the included code and declared dependency (simmer-sdk). Minor wording mismatch: SKILL.md states the edge is captured "without any external API," yet the runtime uses SimmerClient (simmer-sdk) and an API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) to discover markets and execute (or simulate) trades — this is a present, expected external dependency for trading functionality.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py limit runtime actions to discovering markets, computing signals, and placing trades via the Simmer SDK. The instructions only reference the declared tunables and SIMMER_* environment variables; runtime defaults to sim (paper) unless --live is passed.
Install Mechanism
No install spec is included (instruction-only at packaging level), but clawhub.json declares a single pip dependency (simmer-sdk). A single, relevant Python package is proportionate to the described functionality; there are no downloads from arbitrary URLs or extract steps.
Credentials
Only one required credential (SIMMER_API_KEY) and several SIMMER_* tunables are declared. The credential is appropriate for a trading client; no unrelated secrets or system paths are requested.
Persistence & Privilege
autostart is false and always is not set. The automaton entrypoint is declared but managed with autostart:false, so the skill will not run unless explicitly started or configured in the host UI. No requests to modify other skills or system-wide settings are present.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-real-estate-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-real-estate-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.3
Republish to refresh registry metadata
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Enhanced strategy overview to clarify exploitation of FOMC calendar timing and market type conviction, all without external APIs.
- Introduced explicit “Macro Cycle Bias” logic: conviction-based sizing now factors in both FOMC meeting windows and confidence by market type.
- Added detailed tables for multiplier calculations depending on timing and question type, capping at a combined 1.40x.
- Provided clearer, step-by-step default signal process, including market filters and trade sizing logic.
- Updated tunables section with specific example defaults for risk controls and thresholds.
- Streamlined and reorganized documentation for improved readability and practical guidance.
v1.0.0
Initial release of Real Estate & Housing Trader for Polymarket prediction markets.
- Supports trading on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property milestones.
- Provides a template using keyword-based market discovery and probability-extreme detection, with integration ideas for CME FedWatch, Case-Shiller, Zillow, and FRED data.
- Default mode is paper trading (simulation); real trades require explicit activation.
- Risk parameters and credentials are configurable via Simmer UI.
- Depends on simmer-sdk library for all trade execution and market discovery functions.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Real Estate Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on housing prices, mortgage rates, Fed rate decisions, real estate crash scenarios, and regional property market milesto... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 328 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Real Estate Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-real-estate-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Real Estate Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Real Estate Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Real Estate Trader support?
Polymarket Real Estate Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Real Estate Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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