\r \r

Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti-Correlation Trader\r

\r

This is a template.\r The default signal uses static dominance ratios -- remix it with live head-to-head qualifying/race data for dynamic dominance estimation.\r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r F1 teammates share the same car, meaning their championship probabilities are structurally anti-correlated. If Verstappen's probability rises, Lawson's should fall (they share Red Bull's probability budget). Markets are slow to adjust both sides of teammate pairs simultaneously, creating exploitable relative mispricings.\r \r Key advantages:\r

• Structural constraint -- teammate probabilities must sum to roughly the team's total share\r
• Dominance ratios are stable -- intra-team hierarchy rarely changes mid-season\r
• Markets adjust asymmetrically -- one driver's price moves but teammate's lags\r
• Pairs trading -- natural hedge structure reduces directional risk\r \r

Signal Logic\r

\r

Teammate Anti-Correlation Model\r

\r

1. Define teammate pairs (same constructor)\r
2. Set dominance ratios (who captures what % of team total)\r
3. For each pair, sum their market prices = team_total\r
4. Compute fair split: fair_A = team_total * dominance, fair_B = team_total * (1-dominance)\r
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge for either driver\r \r

Teammate Pairs (2025)\r

\r | Pair | Constructor | Dominance | Team Total |\r |------|-------------|-----------|------------|\r | Verstappen / Lawson | Red Bull | 85%/15% | ~36% |\r | Leclerc / Hamilton | Ferrari | 50%/50% | ~20% |\r | Russell / Antonelli | Mercedes | 70%/30% | ~8% |\r | Piastri / Norris | McLaren | 40%/60% | ~36% |\r \r

Conviction-Based Sizing\r

\r

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0\r
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)\r
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Entry edge | 8% | Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 4 | Rate limiting |\r | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |\r | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

\r

clawhub install kalshi-f1-teammate-anti-trader\r
```\r
\r
Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
\r
## Cron Schedule\r
\r
Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
\r
## Safety & Execution Mode\r
\r
**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
\r
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
\r
## Required Credentials\r
\r
| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
\r
## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
\r
| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.08` | Min divergence to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `4` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping trade |\r
| `SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
\r
## Dependency\r
\r
`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r