Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader
/install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader
Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader
This is a template. The default signal uses the 100% sum constraint on price bins -- remix it with implied distribution fitting, volatility smile analysis, or cross-venue arbitrage. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Kalshi ETH price markets are structured as mutually exclusive bins (e.g., "ETH above $3000", "ETH $2500-$3000") that must sum to exactly 100%. When retail flow pushes individual bins out of alignment, the sum deviates from 100% and creates structural arbitrage.
Key advantages:
- Mathematical certainty -- bins MUST sum to 100%, deviations are temporary
- No external data needed -- pure internal consistency check
- Self-correcting -- market makers eventually re-align bins
Signal Logic
Sum Constraint Model
- Fetch all active ETH price bin markets from Kalshi
- Group bins by resolution date (weekly, monthly)
- Sum probabilities across all bins in each group
- If sum deviates >
sum_tolerancefrom 100%, flag the group - Normalize each bin:
fair = current / total_sum - Trade bins where
|fair - market| >= entry_edge
Example (with defaults)
| Bin | Market P | Fair P (normalized) | Edge | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH $2000-$2500 | 25% | 23.1% | -1.9% | Hold |
| ETH $2500-$3000 | 35% | 32.4% | -2.6% | Hold |
| ETH $3000-$3500 | 30% | 27.8% | -2.2% | Hold |
| ETH above $3500 | 18% | 16.7% | -1.3% | Hold |
| Sum | 108% | 100% | Overpriced |
Conviction-Based Sizing
conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)- Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD
Remix Ideas
- Implied volatility fitting: Fit a lognormal distribution to bin prices
- Cross-venue arb: Compare Kalshi bin structure to Polymarket/Betfair
- Historical mean reversion: Track how fast bin sums revert to 100%
- Options-implied distribution: Use ETH options chain for fair bin prices
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry edge | 8% | Min per-bin edge to trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Sum tolerance | 5% | Min sum deviation to trigger analysis |
| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |
| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority -- keep this credential private. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY |
For live | Base58-encoded Solana private key for DFlow transactions. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_ENTRY_EDGE |
0.08 |
Min per-bin edge to trigger trade |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_EXIT_THRESHOLD |
0.45 |
Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_POSITION_USD |
5.00 |
Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN |
3 |
Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SLIPPAGE_MAX |
0.15 |
Max slippage before skipping (15%) |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_MIN_LIQUIDITY |
0 |
Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
SIMMER_ETH_BINDIST_SUM_TOLERANCE |
0.05 |
Min bin sum deviation to trigger analysis |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: [email protected]
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
What is Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader?
Trades ETH price bin markets on Kalshi by exploiting the constraint that all bins must sum to 100%. When the sum deviates, identifies mispriced bins and trad... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 92 downloads so far.
How do I install Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader?
Run "/install kalshi-eth-bin-distribution-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader free?
Yes, Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader support?
Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v1.0.0.