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Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
170
Downloads
0
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0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-twitter-cadence-model-trader
Description
Trades post-count bin markets using a Poisson statistical model to predict the most likely bins based on historical posting rates. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY an...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to do what it says: analytic pricing and automated trading via the Simmer SDK. However: 1) Confirm the metadata mismatch — the registry header said no env vars but clawhub.json and SKILL.md require SIMMER_API_KEY; treat that as a publishing error and verify the canonical source. 2) Audit the simmer-sdk package and the GitHub repo referenced in SKILL.md before providing credentials (PyPI packages can contain arbitrary code). 3) Start in paper mode only (default) and test behavior thoroughly; do not put a live-capable SIMMER_API_KEY in an environment where automation could call trader.py --live. 4) If you plan to let agents invoke this autonomously, consider limiting the API key scopes (if supported) and using least-privilege credentials or a staging account. 5) If you are uncomfortable with provenance (owner ID unknown, no homepage in the registry header), seek a well-known/reputable alternative or request source verification from the publisher.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-twitter-cadence-model-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a statistical trading bot designed to trade Twitter post-count markets on Polymarket using a Poisson distribution model. The logic in `trader.py` is transparent, implementing market discovery, signal calculation, and trade execution via the `simmer-sdk`. It includes safety features such as a default paper-trading mode (venue='sim'), configurable risk parameters (tunables), and explicit checks for market slippage. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill is a Polymarket/Simmer trading bot that uses a Poisson model and the Simmer SDK; requiring a SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk package is coherent with that purpose. However the registry summary at the top of the submission claimed "Required env vars: none" while both clawhub.json and SKILL.md declare SIMMER_API_KEY as required — an inconsistency in metadata (likely sloppy publishing) that you should confirm before trusting the package.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructs agent to install simmer-sdk, set SIMMER_API_KEY, run trader.py, and explicitly defaults to paper trading unless --live is provided. The runtime instructions and included trader.py are narrowly scoped to market discovery, modeling, and trading via the SimmerClient. There are no instructions to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate data.
Install Mechanism
There is no custom installer; the dependency is a PyPI package (simmer-sdk). Using a PyPI dependency is expected for this use case but is a moderate-risk vector: review the simmer-sdk package/source before providing credentials. The SKILL.md and clawhub.json both point to a GitHub repo which you should audit; no arbitrary download URLs or extract steps are present.
Credentials
The skill only requests a trading API key (SIMMER_API_KEY) plus SIMMER_ prefixed tunables for risk parameters — these are proportional to a trading bot. Important caveat: a live-capable API key grants trading authority; SKILL.md warns about not placing a live key where automated code can call --live, which is appropriate. Verify which key scopes are required by simmer-sdk before supplying a high-privilege key.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false, autostart:false, and the automaton is managed with entrypoint trader.py. The skill does not demand forced permanent inclusion. Autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) but the skill defaults to paper trading; that combination is reasonable for a trader skill.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-twitter-cadence-model-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-twitter-cadence-model-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Added detailed skill metadata fields including owner, homepage, repository, required environment variable and dependency, default execution mode, and live trading flag.
- Updated description to specify requirements: SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.
- No logic or functionality changes; documentation and metadata improvements only.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of the Twitter Cadence Model Trader skill.
- Trades polymarket post-count bin markets using a Poisson statistical model based on historical posting rates.
- Fully configurable risk parameters, executable in both paper and live trading modes (defaults to paper/sim mode for safety).
- Designed for advanced users looking to mathematically price Twitter/X (and similar) post-count markets instead of relying on intuition.
- Provides clear strategy logic, remix suggestions, and easy installation through command line.
- Does not run on a schedule by default; must be configured in the Simmer UI for automated execution.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader?
Trades post-count bin markets using a Poisson statistical model to predict the most likely bins based on historical posting rates. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY an... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 170 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-twitter-cadence-model-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader support?
Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Twitter Cadence Model Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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