\r \r

Kalshi Fed Futures Arb Trader\r

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This is a template. \r The default signal uses static CME FedWatch probabilities -- remix it with live FedWatch scraping, OIS curve extraction, or SOFR futures-implied paths. \r The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\r \r

Strategy Overview\r

\r CME FedWatch Tool derives rate-cut probabilities from fed funds futures -- a deep, institutional market. Kalshi lists the same events as prediction markets. This skill compares the two and trades when Kalshi diverges from the futures-implied fair value.\r \r Key advantages:\r

• Futures are the institutional benchmark -- deep liquidity and professional pricing\r
• Kalshi retail flow creates mispricing -- especially around FOMC meetings\r
• Multiple meetings -- signals across the entire rate path\r \r

Signal Logic\r

\r

FedWatch Arbitrage Model\r

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1. Load CME FedWatch implied probabilities per FOMC meeting\r
2. Fetch Kalshi Fed rate decision markets\r
3. Match markets to meetings and detect direction (cut vs hike)\r
4. Compute edge: fair_yes - market_price\r
5. Trade when |edge| >= entry_edge\r \r

Example (with defaults)\r

\r | Meeting | FedWatch P(cut) | Kalshi P | Edge | Action |\r |---------|----------------|----------|------|--------|\r | Jun 2026 | 35% | 25% | +10% | BUY YES |\r | Sep 2026 | 68% | 70% | -2% | Hold |\r | Dec 2026 | 82% | 65% | +17% | BUY YES |\r \r

Remix Ideas\r

\r

• Live FedWatch scraper: Auto-refresh from CME website\r
• OIS curve extraction: Derive probabilities from overnight index swaps\r
• SOFR futures: Use SOFR futures strips for higher precision\r
• Cross-meeting consistency: Enforce temporal monotonicity across meetings\r \r

Risk Parameters\r

\r | Parameter | Default | Notes |\r |-----------|---------|-------|\r | Entry edge | 8% | Min FedWatch-vs-Kalshi divergence to trade |\r | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |\r | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |\r | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |\r | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |\r | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |\r \r

Installation & Setup\r

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clawhub install kalshi-fed-futures-arb-trader\r
```\r
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Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables.\r
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## Cron Schedule\r
\r
Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.\r
\r
## Safety & Execution Mode\r
\r
**The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\r
\r
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\r
|----------|------|----------------|\r
| `python trader.py` | Dry run | None |\r
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |\r
| `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |\r
\r
The automaton cron is set to `null` -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. `autostart: false` means it won't start automatically on install.\r
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## Required Credentials\r
\r
| Variable | Required | Notes |\r
|----------|----------|-------|\r
| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |\r
| `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |\r
\r
## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\r
\r
All risk parameters are declared in `clawhub.json` as `tunables` and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.\r
\r
| Variable | Default | Purpose |\r
|----------|---------|---------|\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.08` | Min divergence between FedWatch and market to trigger trade |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |\r
| `SIMMER_FED_FUT_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |\r
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## Dependency\r
\r
`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\r
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\r
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\r
- Publisher: [email protected]\r
\r
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\r