Polymarket Candle Momentum

Trade Polymarket 5-minute crypto fast markets using candle body analysis and volume surge detection from Binance. A stronger, data-driven alternative to simple momentum signals.

This is a template. The default signal uses Binance 1-minute candle structure (body/range ratio + volume surge). Remix it with your own thresholds, additional indicators, or alternative data sources. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, import, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

Fast markets carry Polymarket's 10% fee (is_paid: true). The default thresholds are calibrated to maintain edge after fees.

The Signal

Most fast-market skills use simple price momentum (did price go up or down?). This skill looks at how price moved:

1. Candle Body Ratio - Measures the last 1-minute candle's body size relative to its full range. A body ratio > 60% means a decisive move with minimal wicks (strong conviction, not noise).

2. Volume Surge - Confirms the move with volume. The last candle's volume must be > 1.5x the average of the previous 3 candles. High volume + strong body = real move, not a fake-out.

3. Direction Alignment - Body direction (bullish/bearish) must align with the 5-minute momentum direction.

Why This Works Better

Simple momentum catches every wiggle. Candle body analysis filters for quality moves:

• A 0.5% move on a doji candle (long wicks, tiny body) = noise. Skip.
• A 0.3% move on a marubozu candle (90% body, no wicks) = conviction. Trade.

Backtested on BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/BNB (3 months, 6131 five-minute slots):

• body > 65% + volume > 1.5x: 86.3% win rate (N=292)
• body > 60% + volume > 1.5x: 84.7% win rate (N=333)

Setup

pip dependencies: simmer-sdk, requests

Environment variables:

• SIMMER_API_KEY (required) - get from simmer.markets/dashboard

No other credentials needed. The script only reads SIMMER_API_KEY from the environment. All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() - no wallet private key, no direct CLOB access.

export SIMMER_API_KEY="your_key_here"

# Dry run (default, no trades placed)
python candle_momentum.py

# Live trading via SimmerClient
python candle_momentum.py --live

# Quiet mode for cron
python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet

How to Run on a Loop

The script runs one cycle. Set up a cron (every 2 min recommended for 5min markets):

*/2 * * * * cd /path/to/skill && SIMMER_API_KEY=your_key python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet

Security Notes

• Only SIMMER_API_KEY is read from environment. Nothing else.
• No host files are read. No logs written outside the script's own stdout.
• automaton.managed is false - the skill does not auto-execute.
• Dry-run by default. --live must be passed explicitly.

Trade Execution Path

1. Fetches Binance public klines (no auth) for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB
2. Scans all 5 assets, picks strongest signal (body_ratio x vol_surge score)
3. Finds matching Polymarket fast market via SimmerClient
4. If --live: calls SimmerClient.trade() with side, amount, reasoning
5. If dry-run: logs the signal, no trade placed

Configuration

Via environment variables only (no local file persistence):

python candle_momentum.py --set body_threshold=0.65
python candle_momentum.py --set asset=ETH
python candle_momentum.py --set vol_threshold=2.0

Settings

CLI Options

python candle_momentum.py                    # Dry run
python candle_momentum.py --live             # Real trades
python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet     # Silent mode
python candle_momentum.py --positions        # Show open positions
python candle_momentum.py --config           # Show config
python candle_momentum.py --set KEY=VALUE    # Update config

Remix Ideas

The candle body + volume signal is just the starting point. Ideas:

• Multi-timeframe: Confirm 1m signal with 5m candle structure
• Wick analysis: Filter out candles with long upper wicks (rejection)
• RSI filter: Skip overbought/oversold conditions
• Multi-exchange: Compare candle patterns across Binance + Coinbase
• Order flow: Add Polymarket CLOB depth as confirmation

To customize, edit get_candle_signal() in candle_momentum.py.

Example Output

  Polymarket Candle Momentum Trader
==================================================
  [DRY RUN] Use --live to enable trading.

  Configuration:
  Asset:           BTC
  Body threshold:  0.60 (min candle body ratio)
  Vol threshold:   1.5x (min volume surge)
  Max position:    $5.00

  Discovering BTC fast markets...
  Found 3 active fast markets

  Selected: Bitcoin Up or Down - Mar 19, 10:30-10:35AM ET
  Expires in: 210s
  Current YES price: $0.490

  Fetching BTC candle data (binance)...
  Last candle: O=84250 H=84312 L=84245 C=84305
  Body ratio: 0.90 (strong!)
  Direction: BULLISH
  Volume surge: 2.3x avg

  Signal: BUY YES (body=0.90, vol=2.3x, direction=UP)
  Divergence: 5c (YES at 0.49, expected ~0.54)

  [DRY RUN] Would buy $5.00 YES

Source

All trades tagged with source: "sdk:candle-momentum" for portfolio tracking.