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Polymarket Global Elections Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
333
Downloads
0
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0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-global-elections-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on elections, referendums, and democratic events worldwide. Exploits two structural edges — electoral system type predic...
Usage Guidance
Before installing: (1) Expect to provide SIMMER_API_KEY — this is required by the code even though some top-level metadata omitted it. Treat that API key as sensitive: verify what permissions the Simmer key has and prefer a least-privilege key (paper/sim-only if possible). (2) Inspect and verify the 'simmer-sdk' pip package (PyPI project, maintainer, source) before letting the platform install it. (3) Test the skill in paper mode (default) and review simulated trades and logs; only enable live mode with --live after you confirm behavior. (4) Be aware the skill can place real trades via Simmer when live; ensure you trust the Simmer account and API usage. (5) The metadata mismatch (requirements listed as none vs clawhub.json/code requiring SIMMER_API_KEY and pip deps) is a red flag — ask the publisher to correct the manifest or provide provenance for the simmer-sdk before proceeding.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-global-elections-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to interact with Polymarket election markets via the simmer-sdk. The code in trader.py implements the strategy described in SKILL.md, using keyword-based market discovery and a conviction-based sizing model. It includes safety features such as defaulting to paper trading (sim mode) unless an explicit --live flag is provided, and it lacks any signs of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill claims to trade Polymarket markets and the code implements that via a SimmerClient — this is coherent. However the registry-level summary at the top reported 'Required env vars: none' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY. That metadata mismatch is an inconsistency that could mislead a user about what credentials are needed.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md and trader.py focus on market discovery, conviction sizing and trade execution; instructions and code do not attempt to read unrelated system files or external endpoints beyond the Simmer SDK/Polymarket integration. The SKILL.md suggests optional external data sources for alpha but the included code appears to operate without scraping those sites.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit install script, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency 'simmer-sdk'. Installing a third-party pip package is a normal pattern for this functionality but carries moderate risk if the package is untrusted or malicious; there are no downloads from arbitrary URLs or archive extraction in the manifest.
Credentials
The code requires SIMMER_API_KEY and several SIMMER_* tunables (max position, thresholds etc.) which are proportionate to a trading skill. The concern is the metadata inconsistency: top-level requirements showed none while the manifest and code require the API key. Also note that SIMMER_API_KEY likely grants trade-execution privileges — treat it as high-impact credential and verify least-privilege.
Persistence & Privilege
always is false and autostart is false. The skill is automaton-managed with an entrypoint but does not request forced global presence. It does not attempt to modify other skills or system-wide settings in the visible files. Autonomous invocation is allowed by default (normal for skills) but combined with a trading API key it increases blast radius if misused.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-global-elections-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-global-elections-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
Global Elections & Democracy Trader v1.0.1
- Expands strategy description with two explicit structural edges: electoral system type predictability and regional information lag.
- Introduces detailed "election bias" logic, applying market multipliers based on election system and region to improve trade sizing.
- Adds explicit tables and examples to guide structural edge exploitation (e.g., PR majority rule, German polling lag).
- Updates default signal logic to use conviction-based sizing and bias multipliers, with more sophisticated market selection.
- Enhances documentation of tunables and safety defaults; specific parameters and thresholds made more explicit.
v1.0.0
Global Elections & Democracy Trader skill – initial release:
- Enables Polymarket trading on global (non-US) elections, referendums, and democratic events, with a focus on EU, Latin America, Asia, and Africa.
- Uses polling aggregator divergence and probability-extreme detection to identify trading opportunities.
- Integrates market discovery, automated trade execution, and key risk safeguards.
- Defaults to paper trading for safety; live trading requires an explicit flag.
- Includes adjustable risk parameters via Simmer UI and utilizes the simmer-sdk for platform interaction.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Global Elections Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on elections, referendums, and democratic events worldwide. Exploits two structural edges — electoral system type predic... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 333 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Global Elections Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-global-elections-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Global Elections Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Global Elections Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Global Elections Trader support?
Polymarket Global Elections Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Global Elections Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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