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Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
353
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
6
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader
Description
Trades BTC weekend price threshold markets on Polymarket by exploiting the systematic gap between first-passage probability ("will BTC touch 150k at ANY POIN...
Usage Guidance
Key things to check before installing or enabling this skill: 1) The bundle contradicts itself: SKILL.md says 'no external API required' but clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and the simmer-sdk pip package — verify you understand and accept that this will call an external Simmer service. 2) Only provide SIMMER_API_KEY if you trust the Simmer service and have reviewed the simmer-sdk package source and permissions; that API key probably grants trading authority. 3) Review the full trader.py (the prompt truncated parts) for any hidden network endpoints, telemetry, or unexpected data exfiltration. 4) Keep autostart disabled and do test runs in paper/simulated mode (the code claims paper by default) before ever using --live. 5) If you need guarantees, request the publisher/source, examine the simmer-sdk package on PyPI/GitHub, and confirm what SimmerClient does (what endpoints it calls and what permissions it requires). If you are not comfortable handing over an API key that can place orders, do not install or enable live mode.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to exploit specific pricing inefficiencies in Bitcoin weekend volatility markets on Polymarket. The Python code in trader.py implements the strategy described in SKILL.md using the simmer-sdk, incorporating risk management features like spread gates, position limits, and a default paper-trading mode (venue='sim'). No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or prompt injection was found; the logic is transparently aligned with the stated financial strategy.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The description/SKILL.md repeatedly states 'no external API required' and frames this as a template that 'handles all the plumbing', but clawhub.json declares a required env SIMMER_API_KEY and a pip dependency 'simmer-sdk', and trader.py imports SimmerClient. Requiring an API key and an SDK is coherent for a trader, but it contradicts the SKILL.md claim and the top-level metadata that listed no required env. This mismatch is an incoherence the user should understand before installing.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md instructions and the shipped trader.py focus on discovering Polymarket BTC threshold markets, sizing and (optionally) executing trades. The runtime behavior is appropriately scoped to market discovery/trading and uses environment tunables. The doc asks the agent to 'provide the alpha', which is intentionally open-ended and grants the agent broad discretion over signal input (not necessarily dangerous but vaguer than ideal). No instructions in SKILL.md explicitly ask the agent to read unrelated system files, but the code does rely on environment variables for configuration.
Install Mechanism
There is no remote-download install script in the bundle, but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). Installing a third-party pip package is expected for a trading skill but is a moderate-risk action compared with an instruction-only skill. Also, the top-level metadata claimed 'No install spec' which conflicts with the presence of a pip dependency manifest.
Credentials
clawhub.json requires SIMMER_API_KEY (a credential) and the code reads several SIMMER_* environment tunables. SIMMER_API_KEY is proportional to a trading skill (it likely allows the skill to authenticate to a trading/execution service), but the earlier metadata claimed no required env—this contradiction is notable. Because the key could permit real-money trading when the script is run with live mode, granting it has high privilege and should only be done intentionally. Other env variables are configuration only.
Persistence & Privilege
The skill is not always:true and autostart is false in clawhub.json, but automaton.managed is true with an entrypoint pointing at trader.py (i.e., it can be run as a managed automaton). disable-model-invocation is false (normal), so the agent could invoke the skill autonomously. Combined with the ability to execute live trades (explicit --live flag), this capability has operational risk if misconfigured or if the live flag is used inadvertently, but the bundle does not request permanent force-inclusion or system-level privilege.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.3
Fix clawhub.json tunable env var names (SIMMER_ prefix)
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Overhauled strategy documentation to emphasize "first-passage vs. terminal probability" edge in BTC weekend threshold markets.
- Added detailed bias multipliers based on resolution semantics, entry timing, and BTC halving cycle, enabling conviction-based trade sizing with no external APIs required.
- Provided practical math and tables demonstrating how "any time above X" is systematically underpriced by retail, with clear sizing and conviction examples.
- Listed monitored keywords and clarified default signal logic for BTC milestone market discovery and execution.
- Marked as a template with explicit instructions for agent customization; skill now serves as a best-practices foundation for BTC weekend threshold trading on Polymarket.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of BTC Weekend Volatility Trader.
- Targets high-volatility Bitcoin weekend milestone markets with strict threshold-based resolution.
- Focuses on markets referencing Binance BTCUSDT as the primary price source.
- Compares Polymarket odds with volatility-driven priors to identify and trade mispricings.
- Prioritizes safety: runs in paper trading mode by default and respects key risk tunables.
- Requires SIMMERAPIKEY and simmer-sdk for operation and integration with Polymarket.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader?
Trades BTC weekend price threshold markets on Polymarket by exploiting the systematic gap between first-passage probability ("will BTC touch 150k at ANY POIN... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 353 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-btc-weekend-volatility-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader support?
Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Btc Weekend Volatility Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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