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Polymarket Social Trends Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
333
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-social-trends-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on social trend indicators: loneliness indices, mental health policy, drug legalization, and cultural inflection points....
Usage Guidance
Things to check before installing or providing credentials:
- Confirm the SIMMER_API_KEY requirement: the registry summary omitted it but clawhub.json and trader.py require it. Ask the publisher to correct registry metadata.
- Verify the simmer-sdk pip package: look it up on PyPI/GitHub, confirm the maintainer and code, and review SimmerClient docs to understand what the API key can do. Do not install unknown packages without vetting.
- Provide only a minimally privileged or test API key first (paper/sim venue) and run in paper mode; the skill defaults to sim but verify that cron/automaton runs also default to paper.
- Do not supply production/funding credentials until you audit the pip package and the full trader.py source. Consider running the code in an isolated environment and reviewing network calls made by simmer-sdk.
- Ask the author for a homepage/source repo and to resolve the metadata inconsistency; if they cannot supply verifiable sources, treat the package as higher risk.
- If you decide to enable live trading later, confirm autostart/scheduling settings, limit the API key scope, and monitor initial runs closely.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-social-trends-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed to execute trades on Polymarket based on social trend indicators and legislative calendars. The code in `trader.py` implements a transparent strategy using the `simmer-sdk` and includes safety features such as a default paper-trading mode (venue='sim') and risk-management tunables defined in `clawhub.json`. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection was found; the logic is entirely consistent with the stated purpose of the skill.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill name/description (Polymarket trader) matches the code: trader.py uses a SimmerClient to discover markets and execute trades. Declared tunables (SIMMER_* envs) align with trading behavior. However, the registry metadata provided to you earlier claimed no required environment variables while the included clawhub.json explicitly requires SIMMER_API_KEY and a pip dependency (simmer-sdk) — an inconsistency that should be resolved.
Instruction Scope
SKILL.md describes market discovery, bias logic, and a safe default of paper trading; the code implements those behaviors. The runtime instructions and code do not appear to instruct the agent to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate arbitrary data. One scope gap: SKILL.md does not explicitly list the SIMMER_API_KEY requirement but the code and clawhub.json do, which is an omission in the instructions.
Install Mechanism
There is no complex install script, but clawhub.json lists a pip dependency: 'simmer-sdk'. Installing pip packages from PyPI carries moderate risk if the package or its maintainer is unknown. No homepage or source repository is provided to verify the simmer-sdk package or the skill's author, increasing uncertainty.
Credentials
The only credential required at runtime is SIMMER_API_KEY (used to instantiate SimmerClient), which is proportionate to a trading skill. However, the top-level registry summary incorrectly stated 'no required env vars' while clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and allow many SIMMER_* tunables; this metadata mismatch is a red flag that the package manifest and registry metadata are out of sync.
Persistence & Privilege
automaton.managed is true and an entrypoint is declared (trader.py), which means the platform could run the skill as an automaton/cron job; autostart is false and 'always' is false, so it is not force-included everywhere. This is reasonable for a trading automaton but you should confirm scheduling/autostart settings before enabling live runs.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-social-trends-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-social-trends-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
**Major upgrade: Deepens structural edge logic with built-in ideological and legislative corrections.**
- Expanded "policy bias" system: applies issue-specific and US legislative calendar multipliers to auto-correct for retail mispricing in social policy/political markets.
- Default signal now uses conviction-based sizing, tuned by the new policy bias matrix.
- Strategy and documentation emphasize the dominant role of ideological overcrowding; includes new canonical mispricing examples (notably federal cannabis markets).
- Added/clarified default and advanced tunables, including specific YES/NO thresholds, min trade size, and context for each variable.
- Documentation now covers all issue multipliers, calendar rules, and rationale; includes explicit keyword list and signal customization ideas.
v1.0.0
Social Trends & Wellbeing Trader skill initial release.
- Enables trading on Polymarket using social trend indicators: loneliness indices, mental health policy, drug legalization, and culture-related events.
- Provides a template strategy focused on legislative calendars and market anomalies due to ideological bias.
- Integrates data sources such as GovTrack (US bill passage rates), SAMHSA drug use surveys, and Gallup polling.
- Defaults to safe paper trading mode; live trading only with explicit flag.
- All risk parameters are easily tunable via Simmer UI.
- Requires simmer-sdk as core dependency.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Social Trends Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on social trend indicators: loneliness indices, mental health policy, drug legalization, and cultural inflection points.... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 333 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Social Trends Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-social-trends-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Social Trends Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Social Trends Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Social Trends Trader support?
Polymarket Social Trends Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Social Trends Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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