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Polymarket Equity Markets Trader
by
diagnostikon
· GitHub ↗
· v0.0.3
· MIT-0
326
Downloads
0
Stars
0
Active Installs
5
Versions
Install in OpenClaw
/install polymarket-equity-markets-trader
Description
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on stock index milestones, major IPOs, earnings surprises, analyst upgrades, and company-specific financial events. Expl...
Usage Guidance
This skill appears to be a genuine Polymarket trading agent, but the package metadata and documentation are inconsistent with the actual code. Before installing: 1) Confirm you will provide a SIMMER_API_KEY (the code requires it via os.environ['SIMMER_API_KEY']) and review the privileges of that API key (paper vs live trading). 2) Inspect or vet the simmer-sdk package (pip dependency) and the SimmerClient endpoint it contacts. 3) Run the skill in paper/sim mode first (default) and test behavior; do not run with --live until you trust the code and credentials. 4) Ask the publisher to fix the SKILL.md and registry metadata to accurately list required env vars and install steps. If you cannot verify the publisher or the simmer-sdk source, treat this as higher risk.
Capability Analysis
Type: OpenClaw Skill
Name: polymarket-equity-markets-trader
Version: 0.0.3
The skill is a legitimate trading bot designed for Polymarket equity prediction markets. It implements a heuristic-based strategy in `trader.py` that uses the `simmer-sdk` to search for markets and execute trades based on earnings beat rates and macro calendar timing. The code includes safety features such as defaulting to paper trading (simulation mode) and requiring an explicit `--live` flag for real transactions. No evidence of data exfiltration, malicious execution, or harmful prompt injection was found.
Capability Tags
Capability Assessment
Purpose & Capability
The skill claims in the top-level metadata that no environment variables are required and that it's an instruction-only template, but clawhub.json and trader.py require SIMMER_API_KEY and a pip dependency (simmer-sdk). Requiring an API key and an SDK is coherent for a trading skill, but the documentation/registry metadata contradicts the actual requirements, which is a significant mismatch users should be aware of.
Instruction Scope
The SKILL.md and comments emphasize a paper-trade default and that the agent provides alpha while the skill handles market discovery and trade execution. The instructions and code do not attempt to read unrelated system files or exfiltrate data. However, SKILL.md language such as 'works without any external API' conflicts with trader.py which unconditionally reads SIMMER_API_KEY to instantiate SimmerClient, so documentation over-promises scope.
Install Mechanism
There is no explicit platform install spec but clawhub.json declares a pip dependency ('simmer-sdk'). That is a moderate-risk dependency (public package) and expected for a trading client; however, the packaging/install story is inconsistent with the skill's 'instruction-only' claim. Verify how the environment will install/verify the 'simmer-sdk' package before running.
Credentials
Requesting a SIMMER_API_KEY is proportionate to a trading skill. But metadata in the registry incorrectly lists 'no required env vars' while the code requires SIMMER_API_KEY (os.environ['SIMMER_API_KEY']) and also reads multiple SIMMER_* tunables. The mismatch could lead to runtime failure or unexpected behavior; also SimmerClient.apply_skill_config may modify environment settings at runtime, which is normal for an orchestrated trading runtime but should be documented and audited.
Persistence & Privilege
always:false and autostart:false. The skill is marked automaton-managed with entrypoint trader.py (it can be run by the orchestrator), but it does not request elevated or cross-skill configuration changes. Autonomous invocation is allowed (platform default) but not forced. This is normal for a trading automaton.
How to Use
- Make sure OpenClaw is installed (local or Docker)
- Run the install command in chat:
/install polymarket-equity-markets-trader - After installation, invoke the skill by name or use
/polymarket-equity-markets-trader - Provide required inputs per the skill's parameter spec and get structured output
Version History
v0.0.3
SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config
v0.0.2
fix: add _client.live=True so --live actually routes to polymarket-venue for real USDC trades
v1.0.2
Fix apply_skill_config AttributeError for new Simmer SDK compatibility
v1.0.1
- Expanded description to highlight two core structural edges: earnings base rate mispricing and macro event timing lags.
- Added detailed, built-in "equity bias" logic; no external APIs required for core signals.
- Introduced conviction-based trade sizing adjusted by market type and earnings calendar timing multipliers.
- Provided specific multipliers and actionable examples for major equity market scenarios.
- Revised and extended keyword monitoring list and signal remix ideas for greater coverage and usability.
- Updated author attribution.
v1.0.0
- Initial release of Equity Markets & IPO Trader template for Polymarket.
- Enables trading on stock index milestones, IPOs, earnings surprises, analyst upgrades, and company-specific financial events.
- Uses keyword-based market discovery and probability-extreme detection as default signal.
- Provides strategies based on options-implied volatility, VIX spikes, and lag between Polymarket and broader financial markets.
- Paper trading is enabled by default for safety; live trading requires an explicit flag.
- Fully configurable risk and execution parameters via Simmer UI.
Metadata
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket Equity Markets Trader?
Trades Polymarket prediction markets on stock index milestones, major IPOs, earnings surprises, analyst upgrades, and company-specific financial events. Expl... It is an AI Agent Skill for Claude Code / OpenClaw, with 326 downloads so far.
How do I install Polymarket Equity Markets Trader?
Run "/install polymarket-equity-markets-trader" in the OpenClaw or Claude Code chat to install it in one step — no extra setup required.
Is Polymarket Equity Markets Trader free?
Yes, Polymarket Equity Markets Trader is completely free, licensed under MIT-0. You can download, install and use it at no cost.
Which platforms does Polymarket Equity Markets Trader support?
Polymarket Equity Markets Trader is cross-platform and runs anywhere OpenClaw / Claude Code is available (cross-platform).
Who created Polymarket Equity Markets Trader?
It is built and maintained by diagnostikon (@diagnostikon); the current version is v0.0.3.
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