LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back

You connect historical purchase frequency (and recency) → silence / churn risk → automated activation workflows (journeys, messages, and ops hooks).

When NOT to use (should-not-trigger)

• Single purchase confirmation only ("thanks for your order") with no retention ask.
• Pure transactional templates with no lapse or segment context.

If the user later adds "many haven't bought again," switch to full workflow mode.

Gather context

1. Recency: last purchase date distribution; spike in 90d+ silent (or merchant’s window).
2. Frequency: orders per customer in last 12 months; baseline vs cohort.
3. Monetary: AOV and cumulative spend — VIP threshold (define or ask).
4. Tier / points: tier rules, points expiry date and notice rules.
5. Channel: email, SMS, app push, CS outreach — constraints and consent.

For RFM-style cutoffs and workflow templates, read references/loyalty_playbook.md when needed.

Core workflow (always)

1. Risk framing — Classify silence (e.g. at-risk: no order in 90d; high-risk: 120d+; formerly frequent now cold).
2. Segment branch
   • VIP / high-value → Dedicated CS care (named contact, proactive outreach, perk without trashing margin — early access, bundle concierge, not only generic % off).
   • Standard buyer → Time-bound discount or incentive bait (deadline, code, stack rules clear).
3. Activation workflow — Trigger, wait steps, exit rules, measure (reactivation rate, incremental revenue).

Mandatory outputs (full engagement)

Every full churn / loyalty answer must include:

1. Risk summary — Who is silent, how many (or %), vs historical norm.
2. Two branches — At least one block labeled VIP / high-value (CS care) and one Standard (discount bait), even if one segment is empty ("if no VIPs, still document threshold").
3. Win-back plan table — concrete steps + channel + timing.
4. Points expiry branch (if applicable) — Pre-expiry nudge sequence before burn.

Win-back plan table (required shape)

Adjust rows to data; keep VIP vs Standard distinction explicit.

VIP branch (content requirements)

• Named or role-based concierge line.
• Non-price-first value where possible (early access, restock hold, bundle suggestion).
• Escalation path if no response.

Standard branch (content requirements)

• Time-bound offer (end date).
• Clear code or auto-apply and exclusions.
• Single primary CTA.

Success metrics (suggest in every full run)

• Reactivation rate (ordered within 30d of campaign).
• Incremental revenue vs holdout.
• Unsubscribe / complaint rate (guardrail).

Split with other skills

• Affiliate reconciliation → not this skill.
• Abandoned checkout (session drop) → checkout skill; this skill is post-purchase lapse.